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1474 lines (1312 loc) · 53.3 KB
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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>Rice Production Forecasting | Sri Lanka Agriculture Portfolio</title>
<meta name="description"
content="Advanced data-driven forecasting of rice production in Sri Lanka using SARIMAX, Machine Learning, and Hybrid Models (1950–2024).">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.googleapis.com">
<link rel="preconnect" href="https://fonts.gstatic.com" crossorigin>
<link
href="https://fonts.googleapis.com/css2?family=Inter:wght@300;400;500;600;700;800&family=JetBrains+Mono:wght@400;500;600&family=Space+Grotesk:wght@400;500;600;700;800&display=swap"
rel="stylesheet">
<style>
/* ─── DESIGN TOKENS ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
:root {
--bg: #0A0D08;
--surface: #11160E;
--surface2: #161E13;
--surface3: #1D2819;
--border: #23301D;
--border2: #314429;
--gold: #FFB000;
--gold-glow: #FFC233;
--gold-dim: #C78900;
--field-green: #557A46;
--mint: #9CB88D;
--text: #E2ECD8;
--muted: #8CA27E;
--red: #E63946;
--white: #F2FAF0;
}
* {
box-sizing: border-box;
margin: 0;
padding: 0;
}
html {
scroll-behavior: smooth;
}
body {
background: var(--bg);
color: var(--text);
font-family: 'Inter', system-ui, sans-serif;
line-height: 1.75;
font-size: 15px;
}
/* ─── SCROLLBAR ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
::-webkit-scrollbar {
width: 6px;
}
::-webkit-scrollbar-track {
background: var(--bg);
}
::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {
background: var(--border2);
border-radius: 3px;
}
/* ─── STICKY NAV ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
nav {
position: fixed;
top: 0;
left: 0;
right: 0;
z-index: 200;
background: rgba(10, 13, 8, 0.85);
backdrop-filter: blur(16px);
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
display: flex;
align-items: center;
justify-content: space-between;
padding: 0 2.5rem;
height: 62px;
}
.nav-logo {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
font-weight: 800;
font-size: 15px;
color: var(--gold);
letter-spacing: -0.02em;
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 8px;
}
.nav-logo::before {
content: '🌾';
font-size: 14px;
}
.nav-links {
display: flex;
gap: 1.8rem;
}
.nav-links a {
color: var(--muted);
text-decoration: none;
font-size: 13px;
font-weight: 500;
transition: color .2s;
padding: 4px 0;
border-bottom: 2px solid transparent;
}
.nav-links a:hover {
color: var(--gold-glow);
border-bottom-color: var(--gold);
}
.nav-cta {
padding: .45rem 1.2rem;
background: var(--gold);
color: var(--bg);
border-radius: 7px;
font-size: 13px;
font-weight: 700;
text-decoration: none;
transition: opacity .2s;
}
.nav-cta:hover {
opacity: .85;
}
/* ─── HERO ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.hero {
min-height: 100vh;
display: flex;
flex-direction: column;
justify-content: center;
padding: 8rem 2.5rem 5rem;
position: relative;
overflow: hidden;
}
.hero-grid-bg {
position: absolute;
inset: 0;
background-image:
linear-gradient(rgba(255, 176, 0, .03) 1px, transparent 1px),
linear-gradient(90deg, rgba(255, 176, 0, .03) 1px, transparent 1px);
background-size: 56px 56px;
}
.hero-glow {
position: absolute;
top: -20%;
right: -10%;
width: 700px;
height: 700px;
border-radius: 50%;
background: radial-gradient(circle, rgba(255, 176, 0, .07) 0%, transparent 65%);
pointer-events: none;
}
.hero-glow2 {
position: absolute;
bottom: -30%;
left: -10%;
width: 500px;
height: 500px;
border-radius: 50%;
background: radial-gradient(circle, rgba(85, 122, 70, .06) 0%, transparent 65%);
pointer-events: none;
}
.scan-line {
position: absolute;
left: 0;
right: 0;
height: 1px;
background: linear-gradient(90deg, transparent, var(--gold), transparent);
opacity: 0;
animation: scan 8s ease-in-out infinite;
}
@keyframes scan {
0% {
top: 0%;
opacity: 0;
}
5% {
opacity: .5;
}
95% {
opacity: .3;
}
100% {
top: 100%;
opacity: 0;
}
}
.hero-inner {
position: relative;
z-index: 1;
max-width: 1100px;
margin: 0 auto;
width: 100%;
}
.hero-eyebrow {
font-size: 11px;
font-weight: 700;
letter-spacing: .2em;
text-transform: uppercase;
color: var(--gold);
margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 10px;
}
.hero-eyebrow::before,
.hero-eyebrow::after {
content: '';
display: block;
height: 1px;
width: 40px;
background: var(--gold);
opacity: .5;
}
.hero-title {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
font-size: clamp(2.2rem, 5.5vw, 4.8rem);
font-weight: 800;
line-height: 1.08;
letter-spacing: -.04em;
color: var(--white);
margin-bottom: 1rem;
}
.hero-title .hl {
color: var(--gold);
}
.hero-subtitle {
font-size: 1.1rem;
color: var(--muted);
margin-bottom: 2rem;
max-width: 650px;
font-weight: 400;
line-height: 1.75;
}
.hero-badges {
display: flex;
flex-wrap: wrap;
gap: .6rem;
margin-bottom: 2.5rem;
}
.badge {
padding: .35rem 1rem;
border-radius: 999px;
font-size: 12px;
font-weight: 600;
border: 1px solid var(--border);
color: var(--muted);
background: var(--surface);
transition: all .2s;
}
.badge:hover,
.badge.active {
border-color: var(--gold);
color: var(--gold-glow);
}
.hero-cta {
display: flex;
gap: 1rem;
margin-bottom: 3rem;
}
.btn-primary {
padding: .65rem 1.6rem;
background: var(--gold);
color: var(--bg);
border-radius: 8px;
font-size: 14px;
font-weight: 700;
text-decoration: none;
transition: opacity .2s, transform .2s;
display: inline-block;
}
.btn-primary:hover {
opacity: .9;
transform: translateY(-1px);
}
.btn-ghost {
padding: .65rem 1.6rem;
border: 1px solid var(--border2);
color: var(--text);
border-radius: 8px;
font-size: 14px;
font-weight: 600;
text-decoration: none;
transition: all .2s;
display: inline-block;
}
.btn-ghost:hover {
border-color: var(--gold);
color: var(--gold-glow);
}
.hero-stats {
display: flex;
gap: 2.5rem;
padding-top: 2rem;
border-top: 1px solid var(--border);
}
.hero-stat-val {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
font-size: 2.4rem;
font-weight: 800;
color: var(--white);
line-height: 1;
letter-spacing: -.04em;
}
.hero-stat-val span {
color: var(--gold);
font-size: 1.4rem;
}
.hero-stat-label {
font-size: 11px;
color: var(--muted);
text-transform: uppercase;
letter-spacing: .1em;
margin-top: 4px;
}
/* ─── LAYOUT ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.container {
max-width: 1100px;
margin: 0 auto;
padding: 0 2.5rem;
}
section {
padding: 6rem 0;
}
.divider {
width: 100%;
height: 1px;
background: var(--border);
}
.section-eyebrow {
font-size: 10px;
font-weight: 800;
letter-spacing: .2em;
text-transform: uppercase;
color: var(--gold);
margin-bottom: .8rem;
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 10px;
}
.section-eyebrow::after {
content: '';
display: block;
flex: 1;
height: 1px;
background: linear-gradient(90deg, var(--border), transparent);
}
.section-title {
font-family: 'Space Grotesk', sans-serif;
font-size: clamp(1.6rem, 3vw, 2.4rem);
font-weight: 800;
color: var(--white);
margin-bottom: .8rem;
letter-spacing: -.03em;
line-height: 1.2;
}
.section-sub {
color: var(--muted);
max-width: 680px;
margin-bottom: 3rem;
font-size: 15px;
}
/* ─── STAT CARDS ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.stats-grid {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(180px, 1fr));
gap: 16px;
margin-bottom: 48px;
}
.stat-card {
background: var(--surface);
border: 1px solid var(--border);
border-radius: 14px;
padding: 24px 20px;
transition: border-color .25s, transform .25s;
}
.stat-card:hover {
border-color: var(--gold);
transform: translateY(-3px);
}
.stat-card-val {
font-family: 'JetBrains Mono', monospace;
font-size: 2.2rem;
font-weight: 700;
color: var(--gold);
letter-spacing: -.04em;
line-height: 1;
}
.stat-card-label {
font-size: 12px;
color: var(--muted);
font-weight: 500;
margin-top: 6px;
}
.stat-card-icon {
font-size: 20px;
margin-bottom: 12px;
}
/* ─── FEATURE TABLE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.feature-table {
width: 100%;
border-collapse: collapse;
font-size: 13.5px;
margin: 24px 0;
}
.feature-table th {
background: var(--surface2);
color: var(--gold);
font-size: 10px;
font-weight: 800;
letter-spacing: .15em;
text-transform: uppercase;
padding: 12px 18px;
text-align: left;
border-bottom: 2px solid var(--border2);
}
.feature-table td {
padding: 11px 18px;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
color: var(--text);
vertical-align: middle;
}
.feature-table tr:hover td {
background: var(--surface2);
}
.feature-table td:first-child {
font-family: 'JetBrains Mono', monospace;
font-size: 13px;
font-weight: 600;
color: var(--gold-glow);
}
.type-badge {
padding: 2px 10px;
border-radius: 5px;
font-size: 11px;
font-weight: 700;
font-family: 'JetBrains Mono', monospace;
}
.type-cont {
background: rgba(255, 176, 0, .12);
color: var(--gold-glow);
}
.type-cat {
background: rgba(85, 122, 70, .15);
color: var(--mint);
}
.type-bin {
background: rgba(230, 57, 70, .10);
color: var(--red);
}
/* ─── INSIGHT BOXES ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.ib {
border-left: 4px solid var(--gold);
border-radius: 0 12px 12px 0;
background: rgba(255, 176, 0, .05);
padding: 20px 26px;
margin: 28px 0;
}
.ib.green {
border-left-color: var(--field-green);
background: rgba(85, 122, 70, .06);
}
.ib.red {
border-left-color: var(--red);
background: rgba(230, 57, 70, .05);
}
.ib-label {
font-size: 10px;
font-weight: 800;
letter-spacing: .18em;
text-transform: uppercase;
color: var(--gold);
margin-bottom: 8px;
}
.ib.green .ib-label {
color: var(--mint);
}
.ib.red .ib-label {
color: var(--red);
}
.ib p {
font-size: 14px;
color: var(--muted);
line-height: 1.75;
}
.ib p strong {
color: var(--text);
}
/* ─── CHART CARDS ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.plot-card {
background: var(--surface);
border: 1px solid var(--border);
border-radius: 16px;
overflow: hidden;
margin-bottom: 28px;
transition: border-color .25s, box-shadow .25s;
}
.plot-card:hover {
border-color: rgba(255, 176, 0, .35);
box-shadow: 0 10px 40px rgba(0, 0, 0, .5), 0 0 0 1px rgba(255, 176, 0, .05);
}
.plot-header {
padding: 20px 26px 16px;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
}
.plot-num {
font-size: 10px;
font-weight: 700;
letter-spacing: .2em;
color: var(--gold);
text-transform: uppercase;
margin-bottom: 4px;
}
.plot-title {
font-size: 16px;
font-weight: 700;
color: var(--white);
}
.plot-desc {
font-size: 13px;
color: var(--muted);
margin-top: 4px;
}
.plot-body {
padding: 20px 26px;
}
.plot-insight {
padding: 16px 26px;
border-top: 1px solid var(--border);
display: flex;
gap: 12px;
align-items: flex-start;
}
.pi-icon {
font-size: 18px;
flex-shrink: 0;
}
.pi-text {
font-size: 13.5px;
color: var(--muted);
line-height: 1.65;
}
.pi-text strong {
color: var(--text);
}
.g2 {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: 1fr 1fr;
gap: 20px;
}
/* ─── CODE BLOCK ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.cb {
background: var(--surface2);
border: 1px solid var(--border);
border-radius: 12px;
padding: 22px 26px;
font-family: 'JetBrains Mono', monospace;
font-size: 13px;
color: var(--gold-glow);
line-height: 1.9;
margin: 20px 0;
overflow-x: auto;
}
.cb .cm {
color: var(--muted);
}
.cb .kw {
color: #a1c992;
}
.cb .fn {
color: #f5b041;
}
.cb .st {
color: #fcf3cf;
}
/* ─── STATS TABLE ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.stats-table {
width: 100%;
border-collapse: collapse;
font-size: 13px;
}
.stats-table th {
padding: 10px 16px;
background: var(--surface2);
color: var(--gold);
font-size: 10px;
font-weight: 700;
text-transform: uppercase;
letter-spacing: .12em;
text-align: left;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border2);
}
.stats-table td {
padding: 10px 16px;
border-bottom: 1px solid var(--border);
font-family: 'JetBrains Mono', monospace;
font-size: 12.5px;
color: var(--text);
}
.stats-table tr:hover td {
background: var(--surface2);
}
.sig-star {
color: var(--gold-glow);
font-weight: 800;
}
.sig-ns {
color: var(--muted);
}
.bar-wrap {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 10px;
}
.bar-track {
flex: 1;
height: 5px;
background: var(--border);
border-radius: 3px;
overflow: hidden;
}
.bar-fill {
height: 100%;
background: var(--gold);
border-radius: 3px;
transition: width 1.2s ease;
}
/* ─── PIPELINE ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.pipeline {
display: flex;
align-items: center;
gap: 0;
overflow-x: auto;
padding: 28px 0;
scrollbar-width: none;
}
.pipeline::-webkit-scrollbar {
display: none;
}
.pipe-step {
flex-shrink: 0;
background: var(--surface);
border: 1px solid var(--border);
border-radius: 12px;
padding: 14px 18px;
text-align: center;
min-width: 140px;
}
.pipe-label {
font-size: 10px;
color: var(--muted);
letter-spacing: .1em;
text-transform: uppercase;
margin-bottom: 4px;
}
.pipe-name {
font-size: 13px;
font-weight: 700;
color: var(--text);
}
.pipe-sub {
font-size: 10px;
color: var(--muted);
margin-top: 2px;
}
.pipe-arrow {
color: var(--border2);
font-size: 22px;
padding: 0 8px;
flex-shrink: 0;
}
/* ─── FINDINGS GRID ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.find-grid {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(240px, 1fr));
gap: 16px;
}
.find-card {
background: var(--surface);
border: 1px solid var(--border);
border-radius: 14px;
padding: 22px;
transition: all .25s;
}
.find-card:hover {
border-color: var(--gold);
transform: translateY(-2px);
}
.find-icon {
font-size: 22px;
margin-bottom: 12px;
}
.find-title {
font-size: 14px;
font-weight: 700;
color: var(--white);
margin-bottom: 6px;
}
.find-text {
font-size: 13px;
color: var(--muted);
line-height: 1.65;
}
.find-tag {
display: inline-block;
margin-top: 10px;
padding: 3px 10px;
border-radius: 5px;
font-size: 11px;
font-weight: 700;
background: rgba(255, 176, 0, .12);
color: var(--gold-glow);
border: 1px solid rgba(255, 176, 0, .3);
}
/* ─── CONTACT ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.contact-grid {
display: grid;
grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(200px, 1fr));
gap: 14px;
}
.contact-card {
background: var(--surface);
border: 1px solid var(--border);
border-radius: 14px;
padding: 20px;
display: flex;
flex-direction: column;
gap: 6px;
}
.contact-icon {
font-size: 22px;
}
.contact-label {
font-size: 10px;
font-weight: 700;
letter-spacing: .15em;
text-transform: uppercase;
color: var(--muted);
}
.contact-val {
font-size: 14px;
color: var(--gold-glow);
font-weight: 600;
}
/* ─── FOOTER ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
footer {
padding: 2rem 2.5rem;
border-top: 1px solid var(--border);
display: flex;
justify-content: space-between;
align-items: center;
font-size: 12px;
color: var(--muted);
max-width: 1100px;
margin: 0 auto;
}
/* ─── ANIMATIONS ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
.fade-up {
opacity: 0;
transform: translateY(24px);
transition: opacity .65s ease, transform .65s ease;
}
.fade-up.visible {
opacity: 1;
transform: none;
}
/* ─── RESPONSIVE ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── */
@media(max-width:768px) {
nav {
padding: 0 1.25rem;
}
.nav-links {
display: none;
}
.hero,
.container {
padding-left: 1.25rem;
padding-right: 1.25rem;
}
.g2 {
grid-template-columns: 1fr;
}
.hero-stats {
flex-direction: column;
gap: 1.5rem;
}
footer {
flex-direction: column;
gap: .5rem;
text-align: center;
}
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<!-- ── NAV ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
<nav>
<div class="nav-logo">Rice Forecasting</div>
<div class="nav-links">
<a href="#overview">Overview</a>
<a href="#features">Features</a>
<a href="#analysis">Analysis</a>
<a href="#findings">Findings</a>
<a href="#pipeline">Pipeline</a>
<a href="#contact">Contact</a>
</div>
<a href="#analysis" class="nav-cta">View Models</a>
</nav>
<!-- ── HERO ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
<div class="hero">
<div class="hero-grid-bg"></div>
<div class="hero-glow"></div>
<div class="hero-glow2"></div>
<div class="scan-line"></div>
<div class="hero-inner">
<div class="hero-eyebrow">Agricultural Predictive Pipeline · Sri Lanka</div>
<h1 class="hero-title">
Rice Production<br>
<span class="hl">Forecasting</span> Project
</h1>
<p class="hero-subtitle">
A statistically rigorous time-series forecasting and machine learning pipeline, predicting crop outputs
across Maha & Yala seasons using SARIMAX, Random Forest, and Residual Hybrid Models.
</p>
<div class="hero-badges">
<span class="badge active">🌾 Agriculture</span>
<span class="badge">Time Series Forecasting</span>
<span class="badge">SARIMAX (1,1,1)(1,1,0,2)</span>
<span class="badge">Hybrid Residual Coupling</span>
<span class="badge">Spearman Rank Test</span>
<span class="badge">Robust Scaling</span>
</div>
<div class="hero-cta">
<a href="#analysis" class="btn-primary">Explore the Analysis →</a>
<a href="#pipeline" class="btn-ghost">ML Pipeline Blueprint</a>
</div>
<div class="hero-stats">
<div>
<div class="hero-stat-val">149<span></span></div>
<div class="hero-stat-label">Historical Seasons (1950–2024)</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="hero-stat-val">8<span></span></div>
<div class="hero-stat-label">Predictive Features</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="hero-stat-val">6.67<span style="color:var(--gold-glow);font-size:1.3rem">%</span></div>
<div class="hero-stat-label">SARIMAX MAPE</div>
</div>
<div>
<div class="hero-stat-val">0.913<span></span></div>
<div class="hero-stat-label">Random Forest R² Score</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div class="divider"></div>
<!-- ── OVERVIEW ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── -->
<section id="overview" class="fade-up">
<div class="container">
<div class="section-eyebrow">Project Context</div>
<h2 class="section-title">The Challenge of Food Security</h2>
<p class="section-sub">
Rice cultivation is the backbone of Sri Lanka\'s food supply. Accurate forecasting guides imports,
pricing policy, and agricultural planning, safeguarding against monsoon-driven crop failures.
</p>
<div class="stats-grid">
<div class="stat-card">