Mortality rate projection using seasonal forecast ensembles. Loosely based on Carleton et al 2022 (https://doi.org/10.3386/w27599).
Warning
This is an incomplete toy prototype. This is not suitable for a production environment.
Fork/clone this repository.
You will need to have uv installed and configured on your system to replicate this environment for analysis and development.
Key configurations are set through environment variables or a .env file (see example.env).
The current configurations are:
| Environment Variable | Description |
|---|---|
POREALLAS_TAS_FORECAST_URI |
URI to the parsed and bias-adjusted ECMWF S51 ensemble air temperature Zarr Store. |
POREALLAS_ERA5_URI |
URI to the Zarr Store of parsed and bias-adjusted daily ERA5 dataset used for historical climate and impacts analysis. |
POREALLAS_GAMMA_URI |
URI to the Zarr Store of "gamma" parameters used when calculating to calculate a mortality response function. |
POREALLAS_REGIONS_URI |
URI to the Zarr Store of region and grid weights or "segment weights". |
POREALLAS_SOCIOECONOMICS_URI |
URI to file with each region's GDP per capita (gdppc). |
POREALLAS_EFFECTS_URI |
URI to write Zarr store of projected mortality effects. Will not write output if unset. |
POREALLAS_REGIONS_POLYGONS_URI |
URI to geoparquet file with polygons for each region. Used for mapping. |
POREALLAS_PARSED_GMFD_URI |
URI to the Zarr Store of parsed GMFD air temperature data. |
POREALLAS_PARSED_ERA5_URI |
URI to the Zarr Store of parsed daily ERA5 air temperature data. |
POREALLAS_PARSED_FORECAST_URI |
URI to the Zarr Store of parsed ECMWF S51 ensemble air temperature. |
These are used to define the input/output paths when the prototype in scripts/ for downloads, parsing/cleaning, bias adjustment, and projecting.
Each of these variables can point to data in cloud storage (gs://this-is-an-example-gcs-bucket/with-data.zarr) or local storage (.data/raw/example.zarr).
Projections can be run using the non-interactive script in scripts/. You will need access to the parsed input data described above before running a projection.
Run the projection script with
uv run scripts/05-project_effects.pyfrom the root of this repository.
If you do not already have access to parsed input data you will need to download and clean input data, running the scripts in ./scripts/ in ordered sequence. This creates and populates input data in the ./data/ directory. Note this requires downloading and processing a significant amount of data. Some steps will require access to a daskhub cluster. This will be noted in script comments and documentation.
Data downloads and processing for the prototype were run in the last week of August, 2026.
Data downloads from Copernicus CDS (https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/) require an ECMWF account. You will need to configure cdsapi with you account credentials (see https://github.com/ecmwf/cdsapi).
This is open-source software made available under the terms of the Apache License 2.0.
This repository is available online at https://github.com/brews/poreallas.
Please file issues in the project's issue tracker.