Aaron-Block-Analytics/analysis/data/mike_analysis_verification.json at main · Corvidae-Coding-Projects/Aaron-Block-Analytics · GitHub

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{
  "verification_attribution": "Friendly Society of Corvids",
  "independent_contributor": {
    "name": "Michael Paulauski",
    "handle": "mike10010100.com",
    "society_member": false,
    "thread_url": "https://bsky.app/profile/mike10010100.com/post/3mxrorcrzjv23"
  },
  "classification_scope": "Audit-defined profile flags, not independently verified personal identities or campaign participation.",
  "groups": {
    "explicit_trans_marker": {
      "blocked": 74,
      "accounts": 127,
      "rate": 0.5826771653543307
    },
    "other_trans_signal": {
      "blocked": 76,
      "accounts": 170,
      "rate": 0.4470588235294118
    },
    "pronouns_only": {
      "blocked": 184,
      "accounts": 445,
      "rate": 0.4134831460674157
    },
    "neither_marker_nor_pronouns": {
      "blocked": 230,
      "accounts": 936,
      "rate": 0.24572649572649571
    }
  },
  "pronouns_only_vs_neither": {
    "crude_odds_ratio": 2.1639846743295017,
    "fisher_two_sided_p": 4.0357359666408527e-10,
    "band_adjusted_odds_ratio": 2.1255428638806433,
    "band_adjusted_wald_ci95": [
      1.6339054795009946,
      2.7651125006164574
    ],
    "band_adjusted_wald_p": 1.929447085717881e-08,
    "mike_reported_odds_ratio": 2.11,
    "mike_reported_p": 1.5e-08,
    "verification": "Counts and rates reproduced exactly. Our specified models give nearby but non-identical adjusted statistics; his exact model specification was not supplied."
  },
  "other_trans_signal_vs_pronouns_only": {
    "fisher_two_sided_p": 0.4662636511877542,
    "interpretation": "Similar observed percentages; a non-significant test does not establish equivalence."
  },
  "window_composition": {
    "all_minus_recent_accounts": 466,
    "all_minus_recent_unblocked": 395,
    "unblocked_without_explicit_trans_marker": 390,
    "fraction_without_explicit_marker": 0.9873417721518988,
    "interpretation": "Account-level subtraction uses the audit-defined nested date cohorts. Per-band subtraction cannot uniquely identify earlier-only accounts because a shared account may change its harshest-post band between windows."
  },
  "live_only": {
    "accounts": 413,
    "explicit_marker_accounts": 30,
    "blocked_explicit_marker_accounts": 13,
    "published_model_odds_ratio": 1.7,
    "published_model_ci95": [
      0.76,
      3.78
    ],
    "published_model_p": 0.19635943814086665,
    "mild_explicit": {
      "blocked": 1,
      "accounts": 5
    },
    "mild_remaining": {
      "blocked": 13,
      "accounts": 42
    },
    "very_mild_explicit": {
      "blocked": 3,
      "accounts": 11
    },
    "very_mild_remaining": {
      "blocked": 41,
      "accounts": 224
    },
    "verification": "Counts and precomputed model output checked against the preserved source object; the original fuller regression was not refitted.",
    "correction_source": "https://bsky.app/profile/mike10010100.com/post/3mxru63thls26",
    "superseded": "Earlier thread figures N=674 and very-mild rates 5.9% vs 6.2% are not used."
  },
  "conclusion_scope": "Establishes omitted-context, comparator-composition and score-validation problems. Does not estimate a campaign-adjusted identity effect or prove that every block was justified.",
  "name_search_check": {
    "published_no_contact_bulk_total": 178,
    "third_bulk_only": 91,
    "source_counts": {
      "first_bulk": 15,
      "second_bulk": 72,
      "third_bulk": 91
    },
    "independently_retrieved_role_based_examples": [
      "at://did:plc:2v5itwuwvpjre2rguoqw6kbf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvonkimffk2n",
      "at://did:plc:43vnjgtrf7m65vwkt3ciec2g/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvsbfka2ck2f"
    ],
    "verification": "Both posts contain harm-related language directed at the role, contain neither Aaron nor Roderick, and predate the authors' third-bulk blocks. Original membership in the unpublished 178-account no-contact cohort is not independently recoverable."
  },
  "claim_limits": [
    "No original account-ID mapping was recovered for the anonymous chart rows or the 178-account no-contact cohort.",
    "Mike's reported 2/25 identity-label errors were not independently checked against the original hand-audit records.",
    "May/September campaign participation and its contribution to the full identity coefficient were not estimated.",
    "No causal claim of no bias follows from a non-significant live-only model or a similar pair of observed subgroup rates.",
    "The thread's written addendum swaps the quote/pronoun bit labels; its pronoun-only numerical counts match the preserved decoder with pronouns bit 8 and quotes bit 16."
  ]
}