test(cliffs): four fresh regions - the port generalises, the residual is on chunk borders (#84) - #131
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… is on chunk borders (#84) Two things were stuck at a sample size rather than at an idea. The unexplained population was 14 cells, and every structural test on it landed at 1.4-1.9 sigma against its base rate - what a partition looks like at n=14 whether or not a cause exists. And the shipped accuracy figure was measured on THREE regions, chosen years into this investigation for reasons unrelated to sampling. Four more regions with the ore lever, ~2.5s a capture. THE PORT GENERALISES, measured where it was never fitted: | | original 3 | the 4 new | | --- | --- | --- | | raw cells | 1756 | 2789 | | game cliffs | 1531 | 2590 | | raw a strict SUPERSET | yes | yes, all four | | predicate precision | 0.971 | 0.9877 | | predicate recall | 0.889 | 0.8090 | | false rejections | 6 | 2 | [3000,3000] is exact - 362 raw, 362 game, nothing to explain - and is also the one region with no resource entity at all, which is what every result from #123 onward predicts. THE CHUNK-BORDER ENRICHMENT REPLICATES OUT OF SAMPLE: | | unexplained | on border | base rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | original 3 | 14 | 9 (64.3%) | 45.0% | | the 4 new | 13 | 9 (69.2%) | 47.2% | | combined | 27 | 18 (66.7%) | ~46.3% | Read the status before the number. The replication is 1.59 sigma alone and the combined figure ~2.1 - short of decisive, and this is a LEAD not a result. What changed is the KIND of evidence: the hypothesis was formed on the original 14, dismissed there as noise at 1.45 sigma, and is tested here on 13 cells captured afterwards in regions chosen before any of them was known. Why it matters: chunk borders are `updateConnections`' entire domain - the one rule that treats border cells differently, which our port measures firing ZERO times and models as an UPPER bound. #122 promoted its gate from inert to load-bearing; #127 showed it cannot be scored from map-gen output. This is the first positive evidence that it does anything. And n is 27 now, which is what unblocks the next attempt: at 14 nothing could be settled; at 27 the border question is answerable with one more capture round. New fixture + PROVENANCE entry. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015jeznBmWiZywUc7cBw9xFU
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…, 2.91 sigma (#84) (#132) #131 reported a chunk-border enrichment as a lead and said one more capture round would settle it. It did. | batch | unexplained | on border | base | z | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | original 3 regions | 14 | 9 (64.3%) | 45.0% | 1.45 | | +4 regions (#131) | 13 | 9 (69.2%) | 47.2% | 1.59 | | +8 regions (here) | 17 | 12 (70.6%) | 46.0% | 2.03 | | combined, 15 regions | 44 | 30 (68.2%) | ~46.3%| 2.91 | p is about 0.002. This is a RESULT, not a lead. THE PREDICTION WAS REGISTERED BEFORE THE CAPTURE, in `captureVulcanusCliffEntitiesBorderBatch`'s own doc comment: ~26 more unexplained cells with ~17 on a border if the enrichment is real at ~66%, combined ~2.9 sigma - and a FALL back toward the base rate if it is noise. It came back 12 of 17, at a higher rate on fewer cells, combined landing on 2.91. Effect size stable across all three batches (64-71%) against a stable base rate (45-47%). The first row was correctly dismissed as noise when it was all there was. Its value came from being written down so it could be re-tested once n grew. WHY IT POINTS AT `updateConnections`: chunk borders are that rule's entire domain - `applyCliffs` gates it on `tryToAddCliff`'s fifth argument, which is `!onChunkBorder`. Nothing else in the pipeline treats border cells differently. And it is the rule the port has the weakest grip on: measured firing ZERO times on our own set, modelled as an UPPER bound (the one place the port is knowingly not a transcription), promoted from inert to load-bearing by #122, and shown by #127 to be unscoreable from map-gen output. This is the first positive evidence it does anything. WHAT IT DOES NOT SAY: not that those 30 are destroyed BY updateConnections. An enrichment on a rule's domain is not the rule firing, and 14 of the 44 are not on a border at all - if this is one cause it is not the only one. The port also generalises: 5581 raw / 5134 game cliffs, strict superset in all eight regions, precision 0.9818, recall 0.8434. Two regions have no unexplained cells and [-1600,3200] reproduces the game exactly (686 = 686), so the residual is concentrated rather than a background rate - itself a constraint on any mechanism proposed for it. New fixture + PROVENANCE entry; capture ~31s. Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_015jeznBmWiZywUc7cBw9xFU Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Two things were stuck at a sample size rather than at an idea. The unexplained population was 14 cells, and every structural test on it landed at 1.4-1.9 sigma against its base rate - which is what a partition looks like at n=14 whether or not a cause exists. And the shipped accuracy figure was measured on three regions, chosen years into this investigation for reasons unrelated to sampling.
Four more regions with the ore lever, ~2.5s a capture.
The port generalises - measured where it was never fitted
[3000,3000]is exact - 362 raw, 362 game, nothing to explain - and it is also the one region with no resource entity at all, which is what every result from #123 onward predicts.The chunk-border enrichment, replicated out of sample
Read the status before the number. The replication is 1.59 sigma on its own and the combined figure about 2.1 - short of decisive, and this is a lead, not a result. The PR does not claim otherwise and neither does the spec.
What changed is not the significance but the kind of evidence. The border hypothesis was formed on the original 14, dismissed there as noise at 1.45 sigma, and is tested here on 13 cells captured afterwards, in regions chosen before any of them was known. A prediction that survives fresh data is worth something the same 64% was worth nothing as.
Why it is worth pursuing
Chunk borders are
updateConnections' entire domain. It is the one rule in the pipeline that treats border cells differently; our port measures it firing zero times; andapplyCliffConnectionsdocuments its model of the rule as an upper bound on how much it removes.#122 promoted that gate from inert to load-bearing. #127 showed it cannot be scored from map-generation output at all. An enrichment pointing at the same rule from a third, independent direction is the first positive evidence that it does anything.
And n is 27 now
That is the part that actually unblocks the next attempt. Every structural test on this residual just doubled its power. At n=14 nothing could be settled; at 27 the border question is answerable with one more capture round of the same size.
Verification
pnpm run verifygreen - 1493 app (up 6) + 13 worker + 3 container tests, 0 warnings, exit 0. New fixture +PROVENANCE.jsonentry. Nothing shipping changed.🤖 Generated with Claude Code
https://claude.ai/code/session_015jeznBmWiZywUc7cBw9xFU