02_watchlist_triage.py

"""Triage a watchlist: what fired, and how much of it is worth reading.

Prints the styled table and then the subset that actually clears its baseline.

    python examples/02_watchlist_triage.py
    python examples/02_watchlist_triage.py AAPL MSFT NVDA TSLA
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import sys

from honest_signals import check_watchlist, print_report
from honest_signals.stats import Verdict

DEFAULT_WATCHLIST = ["AAPL", "MSFT", "NVDA", "SPY", "QQQ", "BTCUSDT", "ETHUSDT"]


def main() -> int:
    tickers = sys.argv[1:] or DEFAULT_WATCHLIST

    report = check_watchlist(tickers, timeframe="1d", within_bars=5)
    print_report(report, show_disclaimer=False)

    unmeasured = [s for s in report.signals if s.verdict is Verdict.NO_BASELINE]
    if unmeasured:
        print()
        print(
            f"{len(unmeasured)} of {len(report.signals)} signals came back with a hit rate "
            "but no baseline, so their edge is unmeasured rather than absent."
        )

    actionable = [s for s in report.ranked() if s.verdict.is_actionable]
    print()

    if not actionable:
        print("Nothing on this watchlist clears its own baseline today.")
        print("That is the normal outcome, not a failure of the tool: across the")
        print("105 (pattern, timeframe, confidence-band) cells measured on 2026-07-18,")
        print("only three separated from their baseline -- all three on crypto, and")
        print("fewer than the ~5.3 that chance alone would produce. On US stocks &")
        print("ETFs it was 0 of 60. Exactly one of the 105 landed ABOVE its baseline")
        print("(double_top 1d 0.50-0.75, +9.78pp on n=149), and none of the three")
        print("survives a correction for having tested 105 cells.")
        return 0

    print(f"{len(actionable)} of {len(report.signals)} signals separate from their baseline:")
    print()

    for signal in actionable:
        verb = "clears" if signal.verdict is Verdict.BEATS_BASELINE else "trails"
        lift = signal.lift
        assert lift is not None
        print(
            f"  {signal.ticker:<9} {signal.pattern:<20} {verb:<7} "
            f"{lift.lift_pp:+.1f}pp vs {lift.baseline:.1%} baseline "
            f"(n={signal.sample_size:,}, {signal.bars_ago} bars ago)"
        )

    trailing = [s for s in actionable if s.verdict is Verdict.TRAILS_BASELINE]
    if trailing:
        print()
        print(
            f"Note: {len(trailing)} of these did WORSE than no pattern at all, "
            "by more than the interval on the difference allows for."
        )

    print()
    print(
        "Before acting on any of these: a handful of nominal findings is what you "
        "expect from scanning many cells. Ask whether the count exceeds chance."
    )

    if report.errors:
        print()
        for symbol, message in report.errors.items():
            print(f"skipped {symbol}: {message}")

    return 0


if __name__ == "__main__":
    raise SystemExit(main())