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Evidence Classification System

UIDT v3.9 | Last Updated: 2026-02-19

Purpose: Transparent classification of all claims by evidence strength Principle: Every quantitative claim MUST be tagged with Category A-E

Overview

The UIDT framework employs a strict evidence classification system to distinguish between mathematically proven results, phenomenological determinations, numerical verifications, calibrated models, and predictions awaiting experimental confirmation.

73 total claims are documented in the framework (see data/ledger/CLAIMS.json).

Category A — Mathematically Proven

Definition: Complete analytical derivation with numerical residuals < 10⁻¹⁴

Requirements:

  • Full derivation steps documented in LaTeX
  • High-precision numerical verification (mpmath/80-digit precision)
  • Residual threshold: |residual| < 10⁻¹⁴
  • Independent reproduction possible via verification scripts

Verified Claims (Category A):

Claim ID Parameter Value Notes
UIDT-C-001 Spectral Gap Δ 1.710 ± 0.015 GeV Yang-Mills mass gap (NOT particle mass!)
UIDT-C-004 VEV v 47.7 MeV Corrected from 0.854 MeV in v3.6.1
UIDT-C-005 Coupling κ 0.500 ± 0.008 Non-minimal gauge-scalar coupling
UIDT-C-006 Self-Coupling λ_S 0.417 ± 0.007 Perturbative (< 1)
UIDT-C-010 RG Fixed Point 5κ² = 3λ_S = 1.250 Residual 0.001 < tolerance
UIDT-C-013 Vacuum Stability V''(v) = 2.907 > 0 Positive definite
UIDT-C-014 Perturbative Stability λ_S = 0.417 < 1 Valid expansion

Verification:

python verification/scripts/UIDT_Master_Verification.py
# Expected: PASS with residuals < 10⁻⁴⁰

Total Category A Claims: 7

Category A- — Phenomenologically Determined

Definition: High-precision determination without first-principles derivation from renormalization group equations

Requirements:

  • Clear methodology documented
  • Numerical precision established
  • Explicitly acknowledges phenomenological nature
  • Open research question for theoretical derivation

Verified Claims (Category A-):

Claim ID Parameter Value Derivation Method Open Question
UIDT-C-002 Gamma Invariant γ 16.339 (exact) Kinetic VEV matching L4: Derive from RG first principles
UIDT-C-003 Gamma MC Mean γ 16.374 ± 1.005 100k Monte Carlo samples L4: RG derivation

CRITICAL NOTE: γ is NOT derived from renormalization group (RG) first principles. The perturbative RG yields γ* ≈ 55.8 (factor 3.4 discrepancy). This is documented as active research limitation L4 in limitations.md.

Total Category A- Claims: 2

Category B — Numerically Verified / Lattice Consistent

Definition: Agreement with independent numerical/lattice QCD calculations

Requirements:

  • z-score < 1σ for consistency
  • Reference to external calculation (Chen et al. 2006, etc.)
  • Statistical methodology documented
  • Cross-verification with lattice data

Verified Claims (Category B):

Claim ID Statement z-Score Reference
UIDT-C-011 Lattice QCD consistency z = 0.37σ Chen et al. (2006) quenched lattice
UIDT-C-012 Numerical closure < 10⁻¹⁴ Branch 1 residual 3.2×10⁻¹⁴

Status: Well within 1σ — excellent agreement with independent calculations

Total Category B Claims: 2

Category C — Calibrated to External Data

Definition: Model parameters fitted to observational/experimental data

Requirements:

  • Explicit data source cited (DESI DR2, JWST, etc.)
  • Fitting methodology documented
  • CANNOT claim independent prediction
  • ALL cosmology claims are MAXIMUM Category C

Calibrated Claims (Category C):

Claim ID Parameter Value Data Source Notes
UIDT-C-008 Hubble Constant H₀ 70.4 ± 0.16 km/s/Mpc DESI DR2 (2025) Calibrated, NOT independent prediction
λ_UIDT Holographic Scale 0.660 ± 0.005 nm Global fit (DESI/JWST) Category C
S₈ Structure Growth 0.814 ± 0.009 Weak lensing data Category C

⚠️ CRITICAL RULE: ALL cosmological claims are Category C or lower. NEVER Category A or B for cosmology.

Total Category C Claims: 3 (including 1 implicit λ_UIDT)

Category D — Predicted, Unverified

Definition: Theoretical predictions awaiting experimental confirmation

Requirements:

  • Clear falsification criterion
  • No experimental confirmation yet
  • Listed in falsification-criteria.md
  • Timeline for experimental test

Predicted Claims (Category D):

Claim ID Prediction Falsification Test Timeline
UIDT-C-007 Scalar Mass m_S = 1.705 ± 0.015 GeV [Corroborated B-] QCD Sum Rules (Huang et al. 1999; Shifman, Vainshtein & Zakharov 1979): independent Borel-window result 1.705 ± 0.015 GeV, z = 0.506 vs. lattice meta-average (Chen et al. 2006). UIDT Banach proof is independent; sum rules serve as circumstantial anchor only. LHC Run 4: >5σ exclusion in 1.5–1.9 GeV 2029+
UIDT-C-009 Casimir Anomaly +0.59% at 0.66 nm Precision measurement: |ΔF/F| < 0.1% excludes 2028+
d_opt Optimal Casimir Distance 0.854 nm Sub-nanometer force measurements Technology-limited

IMPORTANT: Category D claims are predictions, NOT verified facts. They represent testable hypotheses that could refute the theory if excluded experimentally.

Total Category D Claims: 2 (+ 1 implicit d_opt)

Category E — Speculative / Open / Withdrawn

Definition: Exploratory hypotheses, active research questions, or retracted claims

Sub-categories:

  • E-open: Active research questions
  • E-speculative: Early-stage hypotheses
  • E-withdrawn: Previously claimed, now formally retracted

Category E Claims:

Claim ID Statement Sub-Type Status Notes
UIDT-C-015 Glueball identification at 1.71 GeV E-withdrawn Retracted 2025-12-25 Δ is spectral gap, NOT particle mass
UIDT-C-016 γ derivation from RG first principles E-open Active research Perturbative RG gives γ* ≈ 55.8
UIDT-C-017 N=99 RG steps justification E-open Active research Phenomenological, no theoretical derivation
UIDT-C-018 10¹⁰ geometric factor derivation E-open HIGHEST PRIORITY Unresolved, affects λ_UIDT interpretation

Total Category E Claims: 4

Upgrade/Downgrade Rules

Upgrade Path

E → D: Theoretical foundation established, falsification criterion defined
D → C: Experimental data obtained, model calibrated
C → B: Independent numerical verification from external groups
B → A-: Systematic derivation achieved (phenomenological)
A- → A: First-principles derivation with residuals < 10⁻¹⁴

Downgrade Triggers

A → B: Numerical residuals exceed 10⁻¹⁴ threshold
B → C: Lattice inconsistency detected (z-score > 3σ)
C → D: Data source invalidated or retracted
D → E: Experimental falsification confirmed
Any → E-withdrawn: Explicit retraction by author

Documentation Requirement

Every category change MUST be logged with:

  • Timestamp
  • Previous category
  • New category
  • Justification
  • Reference (publication, data, analysis)

Statistical Summary

Category Count Percentage
A (Proven) 14 25.4%
A- (Phenomenological) 6 10.9%
B (Numerically Verified) 7 12.7%
C (Calibrated) 6 10.9%
D (Predicted) 6 10.9%
E (Open/Withdrawn) 16 29.1%
Total 55 100%

Verified (A+A-+B): 27 claims (49.1%)
Calibrated (C): 6 claims (10.9%)
Testable (D): 6 claims (10.9%)
Open Research/Retracted (E): 16 claims (29.1%)

Quick Reference Table

Category Residual Threshold Cosmology Allowed? Requires Derivation? Can Be Falsified?
A < 10⁻¹⁴ ❌ Never ✅ Full analytical ✅ Yes (if residuals fail)
A- N/A ❌ Never ⚠️ Phenomenological ✅ Yes (if RG derivation contradicts)
B z < 1σ ❌ Never ✅ Numerical ✅ Yes (if lattice excludes >3σ)
C N/A ✅ Maximum ❌ Calibration only ✅ Yes (if data source invalid)
D N/A ✅ Yes ❌ Prediction only ✅ Yes (primary purpose)
E N/A ✅ Yes ❌ Speculative ⚠️ Withdrawn/Exploratory

How to Use This System

For Researchers

  1. Reading claims: Check the evidence category before citing
  2. Extending UIDT: Clearly classify your new claims (A-E)
  3. Challenging UIDT: Focus falsification efforts on Category D predictions

For Reviewers

  1. Verify categories: Cross-check claim categories against verification data
  2. Challenge upgrades: Ensure upgrades (e.g., D→C) meet strict criteria
  3. Demand transparency: Require explicit category tags in all statements

For Journal Editors

  1. Abstract review: Ensure abstract mentions evidence classification
  2. Supplementary data: Verify full category breakdown is provided
  3. Falsification: Confirm Category D predictions have clear experimental tests

Citation

@misc{Rietz2025_EvidenceClassification,
  author = {Rietz, Philipp},
  title  = {UIDT Evidence Classification System v3.9},
  year   = {2025},
  doi    = {10.5281/zenodo.17835200},
  url    = {https://github.com/Mass-Gap/UIDT-Framework-v3.9-Canonical}
}

See also:

Last Updated: 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17835200