Revenue Forecasting for YouTube, TV, and OTT
This project dives into forecasting quarterly revenue across three major media platforms: YouTube (digital advertising), traditional TV (broadcast), and OTT streaming services.
The dataset covers a timeline from the first quarter of 2023 all the way through the third quarter of 2026. It includes details like revenue figures for each platform (in Thai Baht millions), total revenue, the share each platform holds in the market, quarterly growth rates, average growth over time, and our projections for the next quarter’s revenue.
A) Growth Acceleration (2023–2024)
During this period, we saw rapid growth. Quarterly increases hit high numbers—20%, then 12%, and 11%. OTT’s share of the market surged from around 13.33% to over 29%. It was a clear sign that digital transformation was really picking up speed.
B) Stabilization Phase (2025–2026)
After that explosive growth, things started to level off. Growth rates settled into a more modest 4–6% per quarter. The forecasted revenue hovered around 48 billion THB, indicating the market is now entering a more mature stage.
Here's how the landscape changed over time:
| Year | YouTube | TV | OTT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | ~20% | ~66% | ~13% |
| 2026 | ~32% | ~29% | ~39% |
By 2026, OTT is expected to become the biggest revenue driver. Meanwhile, traditional TV’s share continues to shrink, and YouTube’s influence keeps steadily climbing, gradually taking the lead.
- OTT is growing faster than any other segment, making it the most dynamic revenue source.
- TV remains steady but is steadily losing ground in the market.
- Digital platforms, including YouTube and OTT, now account for over 70% of total revenue.
- The growth rate is slowing down, hinting that the market is reaching a saturation point.
- Looking ahead, the forecast shows a steady, moderate growth—around 4% per quarter—suggesting a mature but still expanding market.