Skip to content
Open
Show file tree
Hide file tree
Changes from all commits
Commits
File filter

Filter by extension

Filter by extension

Conversations
Failed to load comments.
Loading
Jump to
Jump to file
Failed to load files.
Loading
Diff view
Diff view
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
---
title: Document Info
reportDate: October 2026
reportType: Technical Reference
reportTitle: Continuation (Filter Evaluation) Screening Technical Reference Manual
reportSubTitle: System Response Library
reportAuthors: ['Adam Gohs, P.E.']
reportAbstract:
Technical reference documenting the continuation (filter evaluation) screening method in the System Response library. The method computes the
probability of continuing erosion at the continuation node of an internal-erosion event tree, given that erosion has initiated in a base soil
upstream of a filter or transition zone. It selects, for each base soil, the most informative of three methods the available information
supports — a year-of-construction prior, a Monte Carlo comparison of the filter with the no-erosion particle retention criterion using soil
classification ranges, or a full-gradation Foster and Fell evaluation — and reports the largest probability across the base soils. The method
is mechanism-neutral and provides a screening-level assessment for internal-erosion failure modes.
reportSubjectTerms:
[
'Internal Erosion',
'Continuation',
'Filter Evaluation',
'Particle Retention',
'Foster and Fell',
'No-Erosion Criterion',
'Screening',
'Event Tree',
'Monte Carlo',
]
citationGuide:
'U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center, <i>Continuation (Filter Evaluation) Screening Technical Reference Manual</i>, Lakewood,
CO: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Risk Management Center, 2026.'
---

import Link from '@docusaurus/Link';
import DocumentMetadata from '@site/src/components/DocumentMetadata';
import NavContainer from '@site/src/components/NavContainer';

<NavContainer link="/web-applications/system-response" linkTitle="System Response Library" document="web-applications/system-response/continuation-screening" />

# Document Information

<DocumentMetadata metadata={frontMatter} />
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,19 @@
---
title: Version History
---

import NavContainer from '@site/src/components/NavContainer';
import TableVersionHistory from '@site/src/components/TableVersionHistory';

<NavContainer link="/web-applications/system-response" linkTitle="System Response Library" document="web-applications/system-response/continuation-screening" />

# Version History

<TableVersionHistory
versions={['1.0']}
dates={['October 2026']}
descriptions={['Initial release.']}
modifiedBy={['-']}
reviewedBy={['-']}
approvedBy={['-']}
/>
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
---
title: Preface
---

import NavContainer from '@site/src/components/NavContainer';

<NavContainer link="/web-applications/system-response" linkTitle="System Response Library" document="web-applications/system-response/continuation-screening" />

# Preface

This document provides a technical reference for the continuation (filter evaluation) screening model in the System Response library. The model
computes the probability of continuing erosion — the probability that a filter or transition zone downstream of an eroding base soil fails to
stop the erosion — for the continuation node of an internal-erosion event tree. It is a screening-level model: it accepts whatever filter
information is available, from a construction date alone to full gradation envelopes, and selects the most informative method that information
supports. It is mechanism-neutral, so any internal-erosion screening model whose event tree includes a continuation node can use it.

The intended audience includes dam and levee safety engineers evaluating whether the model is appropriate for their assessment, and peer reviewers
checking the technical basis of screening-level results. Readers are assumed to have a general background in internal-erosion risk analysis and
filter design — event trees, particle-size distributions, and filter retention criteria — but no familiarity with the software implementation is
required.

The document covers the model's complete execution pathway: how a method is selected for each base soil from the information supplied, how each
of the three methods computes a probability of continuing erosion, how the results for several base soils are combined into one node probability,
the assumptions made along the way with their engineering bases, the inputs the user provides and the options available, and the results the
model produces. The underlying filter evaluation procedures are documented in the
[Filter Evaluation (Continuation) Toolbox](/docs/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/filter-evaluation-continuation/v1.0/preface)
technical manual; this document links the chapter of that manual each step follows and documents only what the screening model adds, fixes, or
simplifies.

## Document Organization

- **[Model Overview](./02-model-overview.mdx)** — The model's purpose and intended use, a summary of its execution pathway from inputs to
results, its engineering basis, a comparison with the full filter evaluation procedure, and how several base soils are treated.
- **[Input Parameters](./03-input-parameters.mdx)** — Every user input: the base soils and their classifications, gradations, dispersivity, and
regrading characteristics; the filter category and gradation; the optional filter segregation adjustment; the confidence interval; and the
year of construction, with units, valid ranges, defaults, and the choices available for each selection.
- **[Method Selection and Governing Base Soil](./04-method-selection-and-governing-base-soil.mdx)** — The rule that selects one of the three
methods (or the no-information default) for each base soil, and how the governing probability of continuing erosion is chosen across base
soils.
- **[Year-of-Construction Method](./05-year-of-construction-method.mdx)** — The probability of continuing erosion assigned from the period in
which the embankment was built.
- **[Soil Classification Method](./06-soil-classification-method.mdx)** — The Monte Carlo comparison of the filter with the no-erosion particle
retention criterion, using particle-size ranges for the base soil classification and the filter category, or values taken from a single
supplied gradation.
- **[Gradation Method](./07-gradation-method.mdx)** — The full filter evaluation from the base and filter gradation envelopes: the derived
regrading characteristics, the particle retention check, the Foster and Fell erosion-boundary evaluation, and the screening-level combination
of its probabilities.
- **[Assumptions and Limitations](./08-assumptions-and-limitations.mdx)** — Each modeling assumption with its engineering basis, its effect on
results, and the conditions under which it may not hold.
- **[Output and Interpretation](./09-output-and-interpretation.mdx)** — The results the model produces, how to read them, how to tell which
method and which base soil govern, and the role of screening results relative to a detailed filter evaluation.
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
---
title: Model Overview
---

import Citation from '@site/src/components/Citation';
import CitationFootnote from '@site/src/components/CitationFootnote';
import NavContainer from '@site/src/components/NavContainer';
import TableReference from '@site/src/components/TableReference';
import TableVertical from '@site/src/components/TableVertical';

<NavContainer link="/web-applications/system-response" linkTitle="System Response Library" document="web-applications/system-response/continuation-screening" />

# Model Overview

## Purpose

The continuation screening model computes the probability of continuing erosion $P_{cont}$ for the continuation node of an internal-erosion event
tree. The node asks whether, once erosion has initiated in a base soil, a filter or transition zone downstream of the eroding soil is too coarse
to stop it. $P_{cont}$ is the conditional probability that erosion continues through the filter, given that it has initiated.

Continuation is the phase of internal erosion in which the relationship between the particle-size distributions of the base soil and the
adjacent filter controls whether erosion will continue. A filter that is fine enough seals against the base soil after little or no erosion; a
filter that is too coarse lets the eroded particles pass, and erosion continues unrestricted (see the
[Background](/docs/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/filter-evaluation-continuation/v1.0/background) chapter of the Filter
Evaluation (Continuation) Toolbox manual).

## Intended Use

The model is a screening-level assessment of continuation. It serves the continuation node of any internal-erosion screening model, such as the
concentrated leak erosion screening models in the System Response library, and it is independent of the erosion mechanism and of the pool level:
the same filter and base soils give the same $P_{cont}$ at every headwater. The calling screening model decides whether its continuation node
applies — for example, whether a filter lies downstream of the flaw at all — and uses this model only where it does.

The model is designed around two goals:

- **Accepting the information that is available** — At the screening stage, filter information ranges from a construction date to full gradation
envelopes for the base soil and the filter. The model accepts any of these and uses the most informative method the information supports, so
better data refines the estimate without changing the inputs a user must otherwise provide.
- **Preventing false negatives** — Two rules resolve missing information in the direction of continuing erosion: when no method can be selected and no
year of construction is supplied, continuation is certain ($P_{cont} = 1.0$), and with several base soils the worst one governs. Not every default does. An undetermined broad
grading is taken as not broadly graded, so a gravelly base soil may not be regraded; a band with more gravel than sand but no more than 50
percent gravel is held to the sand limit in the broad-grading assessment and may not be regraded; a single gradation used by the soil
classification method is not regraded; the category 3 floor raises the allowable filter $D_{15}$; the gradation method does not count some
erosion; the adjusted filter gradation does not set the probability; and in the gradation method, a filter whose fine band does not extend down
to 15 percent passing gives $P_{cont,j} = 0$ however coarse it is. Each of these can lower $P_{cont}$ (see Assumptions 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, and 20
and the gradation coverage limitation in [Assumptions and Limitations](./08-assumptions-and-limitations.mdx)).

The model is not intended to replace a detailed filter evaluation. The full Filter Evaluation (Continuation) Toolbox procedure gives the analyst
control over every step that the screening model fixes or derives automatically (see
[Comparison with Detailed Models](#comparison-with-detailed-models)).

## How the Model Works

The model executes three stages:

1. **Method selection for each base soil** — Each base soil that the filter must protect is paired with the filter, and each pair is assigned the
most informative method its inputs support: the gradation method when both the base soil and the filter have gradation envelopes, the soil
classification method when the base soil's particle sizes and the filter's particle size can each be resolved from a classification, a
category, or a single gradation, and the year-of-construction method otherwise. With none of these inputs, the pair takes $P_{cont} = 1.0$
(see [Method Selection and Governing Base Soil](./04-method-selection-and-governing-base-soil.mdx)).

2. **Probability of continuing erosion for each pair** — The selected method computes $P_{cont}$ for the pair:
- The **year-of-construction method** assigns a probability from the period in which the embankment was built
(see [Year-of-Construction Method](./05-year-of-construction-method.mdx)).
- The **soil classification method** compares the filter's $D_{15}$ with the maximum $D_{15}$ allowed by the no-erosion particle retention
criterion over Monte Carlo realizations of the particle sizes, and reports the fraction of realizations in which the filter is too coarse
(see [Soil Classification Method](./06-soil-classification-method.mdx)).
- The **gradation method** runs the full filter evaluation on the gradation envelopes — base-soil regrading, the particle retention check, and
the Foster and Fell erosion-boundary evaluation — and combines the probabilities of excessive and continuing erosion
(see [Gradation Method](./07-gradation-method.mdx)).

3. **Governing base soil** — The node probability is the largest $P_{cont}$ among the pairs, because the filter must stop erosion of every base
soil it protects (see [Method Selection and Governing Base Soil](./04-method-selection-and-governing-base-soil.mdx)).

## Engineering Basis

The model combines the following engineering methods:

- **The no-erosion particle retention criterion** for filters, which relates the maximum allowable filter $D_{15}$ to the base soil's $D_{85}$
and fines content by base soil category, with stricter limits for dispersive soils <Citation citationKey="FEMA2011" /> <Citation citationKey="Sherard1984" />. The soil classification method evaluates it over ranges of particle sizes, and the gradation method
evaluates it on the gradation envelopes.
- **Mathematical regrading of the base soil** to remove the gravel and gap-graded coarse fractions that provide no retention capability for the
finer fraction <Citation citationKey="Sherard1989" />, with broadly graded soils identified by the coefficients of uniformity and curvature <Citation citationKey="ASTM2487" />.
- **The Foster and Fell erosion boundaries** for filters coarser than the no-erosion criterion, which divide the range of filter $D_{15}$ into
no-erosion, some-erosion, excessive-erosion, and continuing-erosion zones from continuing erosion filter tests <Citation citationKey="FosterFell2001" />, with representative base soil gradations selected and weighted from the gradation envelope <Citation citationKey="Toolbox2008" />.
- **A year-of-construction prior** for embankments with no filter or base soil information beyond the construction period (the basis of the
assigned values is requested at marker IN-04 in [Year-of-Construction Method](./05-year-of-construction-method.mdx)).

## Comparison with Detailed Models

The detailed counterpart of the screening model is the soil-to-soil filter evaluation in the Filter Evaluation (Continuation) Toolbox. The
screening gradation method runs the same sequence of evaluations: the filter and base soil gradations
([Filter Gradation](/docs/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/filter-evaluation-continuation/v1.0/filter-gradation) and
[Base Gradation](/docs/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/filter-evaluation-continuation/v1.0/base-gradation)), the
[Design for Particle Retention](/docs/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/filter-evaluation-continuation/v1.0/design-for-particle-retention)
check, and the [Foster and Fell](/docs/toolbox-technical-manuals/internal-erosion-suite/filter-evaluation-continuation/v1.0/foster-and-fell)
evaluation. The year-of-construction and soil classification methods have no counterpart in the toolbox; they extend the evaluation to cases
where gradations are not available. <TableReference tableKey="continuation-screening-table-1" /> summarizes the differences.

<TableVertical
tableKey="continuation-screening-table-1"
alt="Comparison of the continuation screening model and the full filter evaluation"
caption="Comparison of the continuation screening model and the full filter evaluation procedure."
headers={[[{ value: 'Aspect' }, { value: 'Screening Model' }, { value: 'Toolbox Procedure' }]]}
columns={[
[
'Information required',
'Methods',
'Base soils evaluated',
'Regrading characteristics',
'Representative gradations',
'Filter segregation or washout',
'Permeability criterion',
'Constricted exits',
'Result',
],
[
'Any of: gradations, classifications, or construction year',
'Gradation, soil classification, or year-of-construction method',
'One or more; the worst governs',
'Derived from the gradation; gap grading and broad grading may be specified',
'Confidence interval; 90 percent by default',
'Decides only whether the Foster and Fell evaluation runs',
'Not used',
'Not evaluated',
'One probability (gradation method: excessive plus continuing erosion)',
],
[
'Base soil and filter gradation envelopes',
'Particle retention and Foster and Fell',
'One base soil per evaluation',
'Answered by the analyst for each band',
'Selected by the analyst',
'Evaluated in parallel with the original gradation',
'Evaluated',
'Separate evaluation available',
'Probabilities of no, some, excessive, and continuing erosion',
],
]}
/>

## Base Soils and the Filter

The model evaluates one filter against one or more base soils. A base soil is any non-filter material upstream of the filter whose particles the
filter must retain — for example, the core and an upstream shell that an eroding pipe can pass through on its way to the filter. Each base soil
carries its own classification, gradation, dispersivity, and regrading characteristics; the filter's category, gradation, and segregation
characteristics, the confidence interval, and the year of construction are shared by every pair. Because each pair selects its own method, the
pairs of one evaluation may use different methods, and the governing pair identifies both the base soil and the method that set the node
probability (see [Output and Interpretation](./09-output-and-interpretation.mdx)).

<CitationFootnote />
Loading
Loading