feat: measure model cost per order; explain the held-out name score

README.md

@@ -165,7 +165,7 @@ Razorpay's MCP server lets an agent *pay*. Bazaar's MCP lets an agent *find whom
 
 Everyone assumes Shopify-scale catalogs, GTINs and cards. Bazaar compiles a WhatsApp seller's Google Sheet and answers "deliver to 560034 by Friday?" — the 80% of the market the others cannot reach.
 
-**Economics (from the results):** quote maths, ranking and the policy gate never call a model, so cost does not scale with order value. The negotiator — the only model call on the money path — routes to a small model and caches, landing under ₹1 of model cost per completed order against ₹9–14 of take-rate revenue on a typical basket. Revenue lines: a take-rate on agent-originated GMV, a **Razorpay Agentic Plan** for brands with no Razorpay-hosted checkout (Shopify's Agentic plan, for India), and an agent-order protection bundle (RTO Shield + chargeback) priced per agent order.
+**Economics (measured, not claimed).** Quote maths, ranking and the policy gate never call a model, so cost does not scale with order value — only the seller's *propose* step does. A cold-cache probe (every call live and metered by the token counters in the LLM client) put the model cost at **₹3.37 per completed order on gpt-4o** — 40 tasks, 27 orders, ₹90.87 total ([`results/gpt4o_costprobe/RESULTS.md`](results/gpt4o_costprobe/RESULTS.md)). That is against ₹9–14 of take-rate revenue on a typical basket, and it drops roughly 10–15× when propose is routed to gpt-4o-mini (or to zero on the free gpt-oss backend), because the deterministic paths carry the rest. Revenue lines: a take-rate on agent-originated GMV, a **Razorpay Agentic Plan** for brands with no Razorpay-hosted checkout (Shopify's Agentic plan, for India), and an agent-order protection bundle (RTO Shield + chargeback) priced per agent order.
 
 ## What breaks, and what happens
 
@@ -218,6 +218,8 @@ Real incidents from this build, kept because the fixes became the architecture:
 | latency p50 / p95 | 47 / 62 ms (deterministic) | a cache hit ≈ the offline figures; a real gpt-4o proposal adds ~1.5–4 s (the p95 tracks how many calls in a run are live vs cached) |
 | model failovers during the run | — | 0 |
 
+> **Why report a 0.094?** The held-out `name` score is the *offline dictionary* backend's, and a dictionary literally cannot know a brand it was never given ("Aashirvaad", "Daawat") — that is exactly why a model backend exists, and gpt-4o lifts the same column to 0.469. It is reported anyway because it is honest and because it is **not a safety number**: a name the compiler is unsure of is sent to the merchant's review queue, never guessed, so a low name score costs review clicks, not a wrong price or a wrong order (those fields score 1.000 on both backends). Cost per completed order is a measured number, not a claim — see the economics section above.
+
 ### Real agents, not scripts
 
 The 200-task table above is produced by a deterministic scripted buyer — reproducible, and the honest baseline. But "an agent *could*" is weaker than "an agent *did*", so three separate pieces of evidence show real models on the wire:

bazaar/compiler/heldout.py

@@ -32,7 +32,10 @@ def run_heldout(llm: LLM, heldout_dir: Path, merchants_by_vertical: dict[str, An
     rows_total = 0
     for csv_path in sorted(heldout_dir.glob("*.csv")):
         truth = json.loads(csv_path.with_suffix("").with_suffix(".truth.json").read_text(encoding="utf-8"))
-        template = merchants_by_vertical[truth["vertical"]].model_copy(update={"products": []})
+        base = merchants_by_vertical.get(truth["vertical"]) or next(iter(merchants_by_vertical.values()), None)
+        if base is None:
+            continue  # no merchant loaded to use as a template (e.g. a trimmed corpus)
+        template = base.model_copy(update={"products": []})
         compiled = compile_rows(read_csv(csv_path), template, llm, workers=workers)
         rows = truth["rows"]
         rows_total += len(rows)

bazaar/llm/cache.py

@@ -67,3 +67,8 @@ def stats(self) -> dict[str, int]:
         with self._lock:
             n = self._db.execute("SELECT COUNT(*) FROM calls").fetchone()[0]
         return {"hits": self.hits, "misses": self.misses, "stored": n}
+
+    def usage(self) -> dict[str, float]:
+        # token/cost accounting lives on the wrapped backend; cache hits never reach it, so
+        # this reports the cost of the real API calls this run (the misses)
+        return self.inner.usage() if hasattr(self.inner, "usage") else {}

bazaar/llm/openai_client.py

@@ -10,6 +10,15 @@
 
 from bazaar.llm.base import LLM, LLMError
 
+# USD per 1M tokens (input, output). Only the models we actually route to; extend as needed.
+_PRICE_PER_MTOK: dict[str, tuple[float, float]] = {
+    "gpt-4o": (2.50, 10.00),
+    "gpt-4o-mini": (0.15, 0.60),
+    "openai/gpt-oss-120b": (0.0, 0.0),  # Groq free tier
+    "qwen/qwen3.8-27b": (0.0, 0.0),
+}
+USD_TO_INR = 88.0
+
 
 class OpenAILLM(LLM):
     name = "openai"
@@ -22,6 +31,24 @@ def __init__(self, api_key: str, model: str = "gpt-4o", base_url: str = "", task
         self._client = OpenAI(api_key=api_key, base_url=base_url or None)
         self._model = model
         self._task_models = dict(task_models or {})  # e.g. {"normalize_product": "gpt-4o-mini"}
+        # token/cost accounting — only real API calls reach here (cache hits never do), so this
+        # is a true measurement of what the run spent, not an estimate
+        self.prompt_tokens = 0
+        self.completion_tokens = 0
+        self.usd = 0.0
+
+    def usage(self) -> dict[str, float]:
+        return {"prompt_tokens": self.prompt_tokens, "completion_tokens": self.completion_tokens, "usd": round(self.usd, 4), "inr": round(self.usd * USD_TO_INR, 2)}
+
+    def _account(self, model: str, resp) -> None:
+        u = getattr(resp, "usage", None)
+        if u is None:
+            return
+        pt, ct = int(getattr(u, "prompt_tokens", 0) or 0), int(getattr(u, "completion_tokens", 0) or 0)
+        self.prompt_tokens += pt
+        self.completion_tokens += ct
+        pin, pout = _PRICE_PER_MTOK.get(model, (0.0, 0.0))
+        self.usd += pt / 1e6 * pin + ct / 1e6 * pout
 
     def complete_json(self, task: str, system: str, user: str, schema: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
         return self._call(task, system, user, schema)
@@ -32,17 +59,19 @@ def complete_json_image(self, task: str, system: str, user: str, image_b64: str,
 
     def _call(self, task: str, system: str, user: Any, schema: dict[str, Any]) -> dict[str, Any]:
         fn_name = f"answer_{task}"
+        model = self._task_models.get(task, self._model)
         tool = {"type": "function", "function": {"name": fn_name, "description": f"Return the structured answer for task '{task}'.", "parameters": schema}}
         try:
             resp = self._client.chat.completions.create(
-                model=self._task_models.get(task, self._model),
+                model=model,
                 temperature=0,
                 messages=[{"role": "system", "content": system}, {"role": "user", "content": user}],
                 tools=[tool],
                 tool_choice={"type": "function", "function": {"name": fn_name}},
             )
         except Exception as e:  # noqa: BLE001
             raise LLMError(str(e)) from e
+        self._account(model, resp)
         choice = resp.choices[0] if resp.choices else None
         calls = getattr(choice.message, "tool_calls", None) if choice else None
         if not calls:

bazaar/simulator/run.py

@@ -220,6 +220,13 @@ def log(msg: str) -> None:
 
     if hasattr(llm, "stats"):
         report["backend"]["llm_cache"] = llm.stats()
+    if hasattr(llm, "usage"):
+        # cost per completed order, measured from real token usage (cache hits cost nothing).
+        # On a warm-cache replay this is the marginal cost of the calls that ran live this time.
+        u = llm.usage()
+        orders = report["transactions"]["orders"]
+        u["inr_per_order"] = round(u["inr"] / orders, 4) if orders else 0.0
+        report["backend"]["llm_usage"] = u
     if hasattr(llm, "status"):
         # provenance: total_failovers=0 proves the real model answered (not the deterministic
         # fallback); on a cache replay misses=0 is expected and does not mean the model was skipped
@@ -335,6 +342,16 @@ def render_markdown(r: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
             misses = cache.get("misses", 0)
             prov += f" LLM cache: {cache.get('hits', 0)} hits / {misses} misses"
             prov += (" — every call served from a prior run's cache; a warm-cache replay costs nothing and re-bills nothing, and the failover count above proves the model, not the fallback, produced the cached answers." if misses == 0 else f" ({misses} real model calls this run; the rest replayed from cache).")
+        usage = b.get("llm_usage")
+        if usage and usage.get("prompt_tokens"):
+            per = usage["inr_per_order"]
+            prov += (
+                f"\n\n**Cost.** The live calls this run used {usage['prompt_tokens'] + usage['completion_tokens']:,} tokens "
+                f"(₹{usage['inr']:.2f} at listed {b.get('model', 'gpt-4o')} rates), which is **₹{per:.2f} per completed order** — "
+                f"quote maths, ranking and the policy gate never call a model, so only the seller's propose step costs anything, "
+                f"and it drops ~10–15× on gpt-4o-mini (or to zero on the free gpt-oss backend). "
+                f"(A warm-cache re-generation bills only the calls that changed, so its per-order figure is lower than this cold-cache measurement.)"
+            )
         lines += ["", prov]
     lines += ["", f"_Elapsed {r['elapsed_s']} s._", ""]
     return "\n".join(lines)

results/gpt4o_costprobe/RESULTS.md

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+# Bazaar — measured results
+
+Generated 2026-09-05T11:57:45Z by `python -m bazaar.simulator.run` (v0.1.0, llm=`openai`, payments=`fake`). Nothing here is hand-edited.
+
+## Catalog compiler (20 merchants, messy CSV → agent-readable catalog)
+
+| field | accuracy |
+|---|---|
+| name | 0.811 |
+| price | 1.000 |
+| unit | 0.966 |
+| pack_size | 0.948 |
+| category | 0.917 |
+| gst | 0.925 |
+| stock | 0.891 |
+
+Review rate 0.230 (items queued for the merchant instead of guessed) · injections neutralised **10/10** · readiness mean 96.3 (min 91).
+
+**Held-out eval** — 3 hand-written catalogs the generator did not produce (kirana rate card, Shopify export, electronics price list; 32 rows): name 0.500 · price 1.000 · unit 0.969 · pack_size 0.938 · stock 1.000 · gst 1.000 · review rate 0.719. Cells the source doesn't state (e.g. GST on a Shopify export) are review-queued, never guessed.
+
+## Transactions (40 buyer tasks, 25 possible / 15 impossible by construction)
+
+| metric | Bazaar | ablation: same catalog & index, negotiation off, same-city filter, no serviceability answers |
+|---|---|---|
+| orders | **27** | 23 |
+| task → order | 67.5% | 57.5% |
+| completion on possible tasks | 100.0% | 84.0% |
+| GMV | **₹62,802** | ₹54,230 |
+| discounts given (all rule-bounded) | ₹802 | — |
+| negotiation rounds | 9 | 0 |
+
+Lift: **+4 orders, +₹8,572 GMV (1.16×)**.
+
+**4 orders (₹8,895) could not have happened at all without Bazaar** — 3 needed a bounded offer, 1 needed a other; 50% of them arrived in Hindi or Hinglish. The net lift is small because bounded discounts also trade margin for completions; this number is the demand that simply does not exist for a merchant without an agent-readable storefront.
+
+Declines on impossible tasks — precision 1.000, recall 1.000; wrong orders on impossible tasks: **0**; wrong declines on possible tasks: 0. Overall task accuracy 100.0%. Errors: 0.
+
+By language: hi-Latn 100.0%, en 100.0%, hi 100.0%. Latency p50 1689.5 ms · p95 4103.8 ms (in-process, llm=`openai`).
+
+## Trust
+
+- Audit entries 258, hash chain intact: **True**, Merkle root `b843402f86485d8e…`
+- Explanations present on 100.0% of agent turns
+- Grants issued 27, used 27; fairness-ledger entries 9, inconsistencies **0**
+
+## False-positive cost — policy strictness sweep
+
+Same tasks, tighter merchant per-order cap. Wrong declines are *possible* tasks the gate refused; lost GMV is the main-run value of every order the tighter cap prevented (reroutes included). The first row is the default cap and must match the table above.
+
+| per-order cap | orders | wrong declines on possible tasks | lost GMV | wrong orders on impossible tasks |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| ₹50,000 (default) | 27 | **0** | ₹0 | 0 |
+| ₹10,000 (Reserve Pay block) | 25 | **2** | ₹36,120 | 0 |
+| ₹5,000 | 24 | **3** | ₹42,524 | 0 |
+| ₹2,000 | 23 | **4** | ₹46,540 | 0 |
+
+## Provenance
+
+Backend `openai` (model `gpt-4o`). Model failovers to the deterministic fallback during this run: **0** — so the model itself produced these results (health: degraded=False, failures=0).
+
+**Cost.** The live calls this run used 561,032 tokens (₹90.87 at listed gpt-4o rates), which is **₹3.37 per completed order** — quote maths, ranking and the policy gate never call a model, so only the seller's propose step costs anything, and it drops ~10–15× on gpt-4o-mini (or to zero on the free gpt-oss backend). (A warm-cache re-generation bills only the calls that changed, so its per-order figure is lower than this cold-cache measurement.)
+
+_Elapsed 573.3 s._