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Final Release Notes — AI Compute-to-Power Capital Cycle

Gate 6 disposition

PASS WITH CONTROLLED OPEN RISKS. All six gates have completed. The final release integrates the 15 isolated workstreams into a single auditable decision system and preserves material disagreements rather than forcing cosmetic consensus.

Decision summary

  • Operate through staged, contract-linked capital tranches.
  • Retain and selectively refresh hardware cohorts when workload-level economics remain positive.
  • Do not treat accounting useful life as economic life.
  • Treat time-to-power, financing carry, powered acceptance, and liquidity as first-order value drivers.
  • Express the public-equity theme through a diversified bottleneck barbell rather than a concentrated pure-compute bet.
  • Maintain CoreWeave at neutral/watch at the frozen price because probability-weighted value approximately equals the event-date market price.

Binding restrictions

R01 — Lease-economics divergence

The primary model estimates a positive lease NPV, while the independent regional model estimates a negative lease NPV. No lease approval is allowed until one contract-level term sheet is applied to both engines and the remaining difference is below $50 million or fully reconciled by documented economic definitions.

R02 — Zero liquidity headroom

The constrained 13-week forecast reaches the policy cash floor. No discretionary capital tranche is allowed without committed availability, customer funding or equivalent protection, staged vendor payments, and at least $500 million of modeled treasury headroom above the minimum cash requirement.

Live-use refresh requirements

Before a current investment or capital decision, refresh:

  • All 24 company prices to one synchronized market timestamp
  • Latest company filings, debt facilities, lease terms, backlog, customer concentration, and capex guidance
  • Hardware specifications, benchmark versions, economic-life evidence, and residual-value assumptions
  • Regional tariffs, interconnection timing, power costs, curtailment, reliability, and project probability
  • Interest rates, financing spreads, tax assumptions, and liquidity availability

Release evidence

The final package includes the complete Stage 1–5 archives, a final control workbook, a 16-page handbook, an 8-page independent red-team report, an 18-slide investment-committee presentation, structured CSV/JSON registers, refresh runbooks, source coverage, render evidence, accessibility checks, and SHA-256 integrity controls.