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research: validate baseball and soccer context with guarded data pilots - #216

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choigod1023 wants to merge 4 commits into
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codex/baseball-soccer-validation-20260909
Open

research: validate baseball and soccer context with guarded data pilots#216
choigod1023 wants to merge 4 commits into
mainfrom
codex/baseball-soccer-validation-20260909

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@choigod1023

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Summary

  • Add a bounded MLB pitch/SQLite pilot with boxscore completeness checks and unknown workload handling.
  • Join observed K League xG and T-30 odds with timestamp provenance, freshness and latest cancellation guards.
  • Run league-independent chronological score-form controls through the actual winner-market recommendation policy, with matched-count diagnostics.
  • Export Markdown, compact results and a private immutable SQLite archive. Production promotion stays disabled.

Results

  • 10 independent league controls: alpha zero in 9; EPL correction worsened outer evaluation. No production weight change justified.
  • K League actual xG probe: 20 eligible games, market 8/20 versus xG 9/20; insufficient for learned-model or uplift validation.
  • MLB: chronological 30 of 186 scheduled games, 8,768 pitches. Acquisition quality only, not accuracy lift.
  • Explicit limits: reused historical sample, unknown archived odds timing, winner-market subset only, no all-league xG completion.

Validation

  • Python: 797 tests and 58 subtests passed.
  • Frontend: 229 tests passed.
  • Isolated production build passed; no shared processes restarted.
  • Research SQLite integrity and all seven saved artifact hashes verified.

No deployment, merge, production DB access or recurring job changes.

@coderabbitai

coderabbitai Bot commented Sep 8, 2026

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⚙️ Run configuration

Configuration used: defaults

Review profile: CHILL

Plan: Advanced

Run ID: 69a6c194-9096-4221-a938-d6dcd96ab58d


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