feat(worldcup): reconcile R32 first results — frozen predictions vs reality

First 3 knockout games resolved (web-sourced, real). The pre-registered ledger
reconciles them: Brazil 2-1 Japan (favourite won), Germany 1-1 Paraguay (out on
pens — our biggest favourite), Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (out on pens — our only
toss-up). A knockout draw settles the favourite 1X2 bet as a loss; the shootout
decides who advances, kept separately.

- wc_manual_results.json: persistent, sourced KO results applied in reconciliation.
- predict_worldcup: manual reconcile + resolved_detail payload.
- /worldcup: 'first results vs prediction' section (score, pens, our call, ✓/✗).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: valvesss

site/src/data/wc_live.json

@@ -2,115 +2,37 @@
 "meta": {
 "data_date": "2026-06-28",
 "n_played_wc": 1037,
-"n_upcoming": 15,
+"n_upcoming": 12,
 "source": "martj42/international_results",
 "sha256": "df6a30676640"
 },
 "next": {
-"match_id": "2026-06-29|Brazil|Japan",
-"date": "2026-06-29",
-"home": "Brazil",
-"away": "Japan",
-"neutral": true,
-"fav_team": "Brazil",
-"fav_pick": "H",
-"p_fav": 0.556,
-"skew_pred": -0.2255,
-"win_payoff": 0.8,
-"lose_payoff": -1.0,
-"verdict": "neg",
-"p_home": 0.556,
-"p_draw": 0.252,
-"p_away": 0.192,
-"home_flag": "br",
-"away_flag": "jp",
-"adv_home": 0.7066,
-"adv_away": 0.2934,
-"pen_home": 0.5973,
-"xg_home": 1.82,
-"xg_away": 0.56,
-"score_home": 1,
-"score_away": 0
-},
-"upcoming": [
-{
-"match_id": "2026-06-29|Brazil|Japan",
-"date": "2026-06-29",
-"home": "Brazil",
-"away": "Japan",
-"neutral": true,
-"fav_team": "Brazil",
-"fav_pick": "H",
-"p_fav": 0.556,
-"skew_pred": -0.2255,
-"win_payoff": 0.8,
-"lose_payoff": -1.0,
-"verdict": "neg",
-"p_home": 0.556,
-"p_draw": 0.252,
-"p_away": 0.192,
-"home_flag": "br",
-"away_flag": "jp",
-"adv_home": 0.7066,
-"adv_away": 0.2934,
-"pen_home": 0.5973,
-"xg_home": 1.82,
-"xg_away": 0.56,
-"score_home": 1,
-"score_away": 0
-},
-{
-"match_id": "2026-06-29|Germany|Paraguay",
-"date": "2026-06-29",
-"home": "Germany",
-"away": "Paraguay",
+"match_id": "2026-06-30|France|Sweden",
+"date": "2026-06-30",
+"home": "France",
+"away": "Sweden",
 "neutral": true,
-"fav_team": "Germany",
+"fav_team": "France",
 "fav_pick": "H",
-"p_fav": 0.6233,
-"skew_pred": -0.5087,
-"win_payoff": 0.6,
+"p_fav": 0.7776,
+"skew_pred": -1.3352,
+"win_payoff": 0.29,
 "lose_payoff": -1.0,
 "verdict": "neg_strong",
-"p_home": 0.6233,
-"p_draw": 0.2285,
-"p_away": 0.1483,
-"home_flag": "de",
-"away_flag": "py",
-"adv_home": 0.7656,
-"adv_away": 0.2344,
-"pen_home": 0.6231,
-"xg_home": 1.48,
-"xg_away": 0.73,
-"score_home": 1,
-"score_away": 0
-},
-{
-"match_id": "2026-06-29|Netherlands|Morocco",
-"date": "2026-06-29",
-"home": "Netherlands",
-"away": "Morocco",
-"neutral": true,
-"fav_team": "Netherlands",
-"fav_pick": "H",
-"p_fav": 0.4809,
-"skew_pred": 0.0764,
-"win_payoff": 1.08,
-"lose_payoff": -1.0,
-"verdict": "flat",
-"p_home": 0.4809,
-"p_draw": 0.2712,
-"p_away": 0.2479,
-"home_flag": "nl",
-"away_flag": "ma",
-"adv_home": 0.6338,
-"adv_away": 0.3662,
-"pen_home": 0.5639,
-"xg_home": 1.0,
-"xg_away": 0.8,
+"p_home": 0.7776,
+"p_draw": 0.154,
+"p_away": 0.0683,
+"home_flag": "fr",
+"away_flag": "se",
+"adv_home": 0.8805,
+"adv_away": 0.1195,
+"pen_home": 0.6677,
+"xg_home": 1.5,
+"xg_away": 0.74,
 "score_home": 1,
 "score_away": 0
 },
+"upcoming": [
 {
 "match_id": "2026-06-30|France|Sweden",
 "date": "2026-06-30",
@@ -433,9 +355,74 @@
 "brier": 0.232
 },
 "ledger": {
-"n_pending": 15,
-"n_resolved": 0
+"n_pending": 12,
+"n_resolved": 3,
+"resolved_skew_real": 0.7071,
+"resolved_p_fav": 0.5534,
+"resolved_hit_rate": 0.3333
 },
+"resolved_detail": [
+{
+"home": "Brazil",
+"away": "Japan",
+"home_flag": "br",
+"away_flag": "jp",
+"fav_team": "Brazil",
+"p_fav": 0.556,
+"skew_pred": -0.2255,
+"xg_home": 1.82,
+"xg_away": 0.56,
+"score_pred": "1-0",
+"adv_home": 0.7066,
+"score": "2-1",
+"reg_result": "H",
+"fav_won": true,
+"advanced": "Brazil",
+"pens": false,
+"pens_score": null,
+"note": "Martinelli 96', won in regulation"
+},
+{
+"home": "Germany",
+"away": "Paraguay",
+"home_flag": "de",
+"away_flag": "py",
+"fav_team": "Germany",
+"p_fav": 0.6233,
+"skew_pred": -0.5087,
+"xg_home": 1.48,
+"xg_away": 0.73,
+"score_pred": "1-0",
+"adv_home": 0.7656,
+"score": "1-1",
+"reg_result": "D",
+"fav_won": false,
+"advanced": "Paraguay",
+"pens": true,
+"pens_score": "3-4",
+"note": "1-1 after 120'; Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties — Germany's first-ever WC shootout loss"
+},
+{
+"home": "Netherlands",
+"away": "Morocco",
+"home_flag": "nl",
+"away_flag": "ma",
+"fav_team": "Netherlands",
+"p_fav": 0.4809,
+"skew_pred": 0.0764,
+"xg_home": 1.0,
+"xg_away": 0.8,
+"score_pred": "1-0",
+"adv_home": 0.6338,
+"score": "1-1",
+"reg_result": "D",
+"fav_won": false,
+"advanced": "Morocco",
+"pens": true,
+"pens_score": "2-3",
+"note": "1-1 after 120'; Morocco won 3-2 on penalties (Bounou save, Saibari decisive)"
+}
+],
 "recent_games": [
 {
 "home": "South Africa",
@@ -534,5 +521,39 @@
 "skew_pred": -0.5923
 }
 ],
-"recent_resolved": []
+"recent_resolved": [
+{
+"home": "Brazil",
+"away": "Japan",
+"fav_team": "Brazil",
+"home_flag": "br",
+"away_flag": "jp",
+"p_fav": 0.556,
+"skew_pred": -0.2255,
+"fav_won": true,
+"ret_fav": 0.7985
+},
+{
+"home": "Germany",
+"away": "Paraguay",
+"fav_team": "Germany",
+"home_flag": "de",
+"away_flag": "py",
+"p_fav": 0.6233,
+"skew_pred": -0.5087,
+"fav_won": false,
+"ret_fav": -1.0
+},
+{
+"home": "Netherlands",
+"away": "Morocco",
+"fav_team": "Netherlands",
+"home_flag": "nl",
+"away_flag": "ma",
+"p_fav": 0.4809,
+"skew_pred": 0.0764,
+"fav_won": false,
+"ret_fav": -1.0
+}
+]
 }

site/src/data/wc_predictions.json

@@ -16,7 +16,18 @@
    "o_fair": 1.7985,
    "predicted_asof": "2026-06-28",
    "model": "elo-results-only",
-   "realized": null
+   "realized": {
+    "result": "H",
+    "fav_won": true,
+    "ret_fav": 0.7985,
+    "score": "2-1",
+    "advanced": "Brazil",
+    "pens": false,
+    "pens_score": null,
+    "note": "Martinelli 96', won in regulation",
+    "source": "ESPN/FIFA/CBS",
+    "settled_asof": "2026-06-28"
+   }
   },
   {
    "match_id": "2026-06-29|Germany|Paraguay",
@@ -31,7 +42,18 @@
    "o_fair": 1.6045,
    "predicted_asof": "2026-06-28",
    "model": "elo-results-only",
-   "realized": null
+   "realized": {
+    "result": "D",
+    "fav_won": false,
+    "ret_fav": -1.0,
+    "score": "1-1",
+    "advanced": "Paraguay",
+    "pens": true,
+    "pens_score": "3-4",
+    "note": "1-1 after 120'; Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties — Germany's first-ever WC shootout loss",
+    "source": "ESPN/CBS/VAVEL",
+    "settled_asof": "2026-06-28"
+   }
   },
   {
    "match_id": "2026-06-29|Netherlands|Morocco",
@@ -46,7 +68,18 @@
    "o_fair": 2.0794,
    "predicted_asof": "2026-06-28",
    "model": "elo-results-only",
-   "realized": null
+   "realized": {
+    "result": "D",
+    "fav_won": false,
+    "ret_fav": -1.0,
+    "score": "1-1",
+    "advanced": "Morocco",
+    "pens": true,
+    "pens_score": "2-3",
+    "note": "1-1 after 120'; Morocco won 3-2 on penalties (Bounou save, Saibari decisive)",
+    "source": "ESPN/Yahoo/Outlook",
+    "settled_asof": "2026-06-28"
+   }
   },
   {
    "match_id": "2026-06-30|France|Sweden",

site/src/pages/worldcup.astro

@@ -152,6 +152,30 @@ const pct = (x) => (x * 100).toFixed(0) + '%';
       </div>
     </div> : <p class="lede">No upcoming fixtures in the dataset right now — the bracket is complete.</p>}
 
+    {wcl.resolved_detail && wcl.resolved_detail.length > 0 && <div class="rv reveal">
+      <div class="rv-head">● First results in — frozen prediction vs reality</div>
+      {wcl.resolved_detail.map(r => <div class={`rv-row ${r.fav_won ? 'ok' : 'no'}`}>
+        <div class="rv-match">
+          <div class="rv-team">
+            {r.home_flag && <img src={`https://flagcdn.com/w40/${r.home_flag}.png`} alt="" width="28" height="19" />}
+            <span class={r.advanced===r.home ? 'rv-adv' : ''}>{r.home}</span>
+          </div>
+          <div class="rv-score">{r.score}{r.pens && <i class="rv-pen">pens {r.pens_score}</i>}</div>
+          <div class="rv-team rv-away">
+            <span class={r.advanced===r.away ? 'rv-adv' : ''}>{r.away}</span>
+            {r.away_flag && <img src={`https://flagcdn.com/w40/${r.away_flag}.png`} alt="" width="28" height="19" />}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+        <div class="rv-call">
+          <span class="rv-pred">we said: <b>{r.fav_team} {Math.round(r.p_fav*100)}%</b> · advance {Math.round(r.adv_home*100)}%{r.score_pred && ` · ~${r.score_pred}`}</span>
+          <span class={`rv-tag ${r.fav_won ? 'ok' : 'no'}`}>{r.fav_won ? '✓ favourite won' : (r.pens ? '✗ out on penalties' : '✗ upset')}</span>
+        </div>
+      </div>)}
+      <p class="note">The favourite-bet skewness is a <em>shape</em> call, not a tip: Germany was our most left-skewed
+        bet (−0.51, "wins small, rarely loses big") — and the rare big loss is exactly what happened. Netherlands
+        was our only near-symmetric toss-up (+0.08) — and it went to penalties. Full breakdown below.</p>
+    </div>}
+
     {wcl.recent_games && wcl.recent_games.length > 0 && <div class="nm-results reveal">
       <div class="nm-results-head">Recent results · 2026 group stage</div>
       <div class="nm-results-grid">
@@ -499,6 +523,23 @@ python analysis/export_worldcup_data.py   # regenerate this page's data</code></
   .rg-score span { color: var(--ink-faint); margin: 0 2px; }
   .rg-mark { font-weight: 700; width: 20px; text-align: center; }
   .rg-mark.ok { color: var(--pos); } .rg-mark.no { color: var(--neg); }
+  /* resolved retrospective */
+  .rv { margin-top: 26px; }
+  .rv-head { font-size: .8rem; font-weight: 600; color: var(--accent); margin-bottom: 12px; }
+  .rv-row { border: 1px solid var(--line-soft); border-left: 3px solid var(--line); border-radius: 10px; padding: 12px 16px; margin-bottom: 10px; }
+  .rv-row.ok { border-left-color: var(--pos); } .rv-row.no { border-left-color: var(--neg); }
+  .rv-match { display: grid; grid-template-columns: 1fr auto 1fr; align-items: center; gap: 12px; }
+  .rv-team { display: flex; align-items: center; gap: 9px; font-size: 1.05rem; font-weight: 600; min-width: 0; }
+  .rv-team span { overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap; }
+  .rv-away { justify-content: flex-end; }
+  .rv-adv { color: var(--accent); }
+  .rv-team img { border-radius: 3px; flex: 0 0 auto; box-shadow: 0 1px 2px rgba(0,0,0,.15); }
+  .rv-score { font-family: var(--mono); font-weight: 700; font-size: 1.3rem; text-align: center; white-space: nowrap; }
+  .rv-pen { display: block; font-size: .64rem; font-weight: 500; color: var(--ink-faint); font-style: normal; letter-spacing: .02em; }
+  .rv-call { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; align-items: center; gap: 10px; margin-top: 9px; padding-top: 9px; border-top: 1px dashed var(--line-soft); flex-wrap: wrap; }
+  .rv-pred { font-size: .82rem; color: var(--ink-soft); } .rv-pred b { color: var(--ink); }
+  .rv-tag { font-size: .8rem; font-weight: 600; }
+  .rv-tag.ok { color: var(--pos); } .rv-tag.no { color: var(--neg); }
   .nm-viz { display: grid; grid-template-columns: 340px 1fr; gap: 24px; align-items: center; margin-top: 14px; }
   @media (max-width: 680px) { .nm-viz { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } #nm-payoff { max-width: 340px; } }
   #nm-payoff { width: 100%; height: auto; }