docs(lineage): register Phase V (Front O) — evidence/observer-3

Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: valvesss

study/analysis/build_lineage.py

@@ -204,6 +204,14 @@
      "metrics": {"beta_year": 0.00015, "drift20": 0.003, "sd_between": 0.0516,
      "delta20": 0.026, "p_tost": 0.006, "p_tost_boot": 0.005,
      "p_tost_balanced": 0.043, "n_obs": 638}},
+    # ── 9th round (Front O: strong observer-invariance via a 3rd information set) ──
+    {"id": "V", "front": "Observer invariance", "tag": "evidence/observer-3", "commit": "b654bca",
+     "title": "The third observer: player-informed p (disjoint information set)",
+     "blocks": ["55_third_observer"], "figures": [],
+     "metrics": {"n_eval": 17356, "elo_corr_law": 0.9975, "book_corr_law": 0.9938,
+     "players_corr_law": 0.9938, "elo_shape_rmse": 0.0053, "book_shape_rmse": 0.0062,
+     "players_shape_rmse": 0.0051, "elo_brier": 0.2338, "book_brier": 0.23,
+     "players_brier": 0.2355}},
 ]
 
 

study/docs/LINEAGE.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 > 38 leagues). Return to any state with
 > `git checkout <tag>`; audit a result change with `--check`.
 
-**HEAD at generation:** `dadd67dd`  ⚠️ working tree DIRTY
+**HEAD at generation:** `b654bca8`  ⚠️ working tree DIRTY
 
 | Phase | Front | Finding | Blocks | Figures | Headline numbers | Commit | Tag |
 |------|--------|--------|--------|---------|----------------|--------|-----|
@@ -53,6 +53,7 @@
 | **S** | External validity | Tennis: the law belongs to the sport, not to football (canonical layer) | 48_tennis | f35 | skew_fav=-0.571 · skew_dog=2.314 · calib_pfav=0.688 · calib_winrate=0.692 · law_atp=-1.0 · law_wta=-0.98 · n_matches=62865 | `4cf9084` (2026-06-23) | `evidence/frente-S` |
 | **T** | External validity | Basketball: the law holds in a 3rd sport (NBA moneyline, canonical layer) | 49_basketball | f36 | skew_fav=-0.57 · skew_dog=2.609 · calib_pfav=0.694 · calib_winrate=0.685 · law_nba=-0.95 · n_matches=19621 | `fa6ea6b` (2026-06-23) | `evidence/frente-T` |
 | **U** | Equivalence | Temporal equivalence: 'no drift' as TOST (evidence of absence) | 51_temporal_equivalence | f37 | beta_year=0.00015 · drift20=0.003 · sd_between=0.0516 · delta20=0.026 · p_tost=0.006 · p_tost_boot=0.005 · p_tost_balanced=0.043 · n_obs=638 | `0598390` (2026-06-23) | `evidence/frente-U` |
+| **V** | Observer invariance | The third observer: player-informed p (disjoint information set) | 55_third_observer | — | n_eval=17356 · elo_corr_law=0.9975 · book_corr_law=0.9938 · players_corr_law=0.9938 · elo_shape_rmse=0.0053 · book_shape_rmse=0.0062 · players_shape_rmse=0.0051 · elo_brier=0.2338 · book_brier=0.23 · players_brier=0.2355 | `b654bca` (2026-07-06) | `evidence/observer-3` |
 
 ## Versioning tags (`evidence/*`)
 One annotated tag per evidence milestone points to the commit that established

study/lineage.json

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 {
   "schema": "skew-dynamic/lineage@1",
-  "generated_at_head": "dadd67dd",
+  "generated_at_head": "b654bca8",
   "head_dirty": true,
   "data": {
     "sha256": "6905ca5324df9528",
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@
     "pandas": "3.0.3",
     "scipy": "1.18.0",
     "statsmodels": "0.14.6",
-    "python": "3.14.3"
+    "python": "3.12.3"
   },
   "phases": [
     {
@@ -848,6 +848,30 @@
         "n_obs": 638
       },
       "commit_date": "2026-06-23"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "V",
+      "front": "Observer invariance",
+      "tag": "evidence/observer-3",
+      "commit": "b654bca",
+      "title": "The third observer: player-informed p (disjoint information set)",
+      "blocks": [
+        "55_third_observer"
+      ],
+      "figures": [],
+      "metrics": {
+        "n_eval": 17356,
+        "elo_corr_law": 0.9975,
+        "book_corr_law": 0.9938,
+        "players_corr_law": 0.9938,
+        "elo_shape_rmse": 0.0053,
+        "book_shape_rmse": 0.0062,
+        "players_shape_rmse": 0.0051,
+        "elo_brier": 0.2338,
+        "book_brier": 0.23,
+        "players_brier": 0.2355
+      },
+      "commit_date": "2026-07-06"
     }
   ]
 }