pushing work on data analysis, first draft of screencast, and process book

Author: CHUKLA

Milestone 1.pdf

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+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "generated_by": "notebooks/03_figures.py",
+    "generated_at": "2026-05-28T14:32:03Z",
+    "note": "Every number is derived from data/processed/*. Do not hand-edit.",
+    "refinery_year": 2025
+  },
+  "processing_gain_pct": 5.9,
+  "yields_2025": {
+    "gasoline": 46.0,
+    "diesel": 30.0,
+    "jet": 11.1
+  },
+  "diesel_delta_pp": 8.1,
+  "world_demand_mbd": {
+    "2024": 102.8,
+    "2025": 103.97,
+    "2026": 104.16,
+    "2027": 105.64
+  },
+  "counter_rate_bps": 1205,
+  "eia_2026_delta_kbd": 190,
+  "world_growth": {
+    "from_year": 1965,
+    "from_mbd": 29.0,
+    "to_year": 2024,
+    "to_mbd": 89.1,
+    "multiple": 3.07
+  }
+}

data/processed/consumption_by_country.csv

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+{
+  "_meta": {
+    "description": "Hand-curated mapping from refinery fractions (US 2025 EIA basis) to end-use sectors. Weights sum to 1.0 per fraction. Editorial — each row has a source.",
+    "year": 2025,
+    "geography": "US, with global allocation patterns from IEA Oil 2024",
+    "sectors": ["Road transport", "Aviation", "Marine", "Rail", "Petrochemicals", "Electricity", "Industry", "Residential", "Roads / construction", "Lubricants", "Other"]
+  },
+  "mapping": {
+    "Gasoline":            { "Road transport": 0.95, "Other": 0.05 },
+    "Diesel / Distillate": { "Road transport": 0.65, "Industry": 0.15, "Marine": 0.10, "Rail": 0.05, "Other": 0.05 },
+    "Kerosene / Jet":      { "Aviation": 1.00 },
+    "Naphtha":             { "Petrochemicals": 0.85, "Road transport": 0.15 },
+    "Fuel oil":            { "Marine": 0.50, "Industry": 0.30, "Electricity": 0.20 },
+    "LPG":                 { "Petrochemicals": 0.45, "Residential": 0.40, "Industry": 0.15 },
+    "Asphalt":             { "Roads / construction": 1.00 },
+    "Coke":                { "Industry": 0.70, "Electricity": 0.30 },
+    "Petrochem feedstock": { "Petrochemicals": 1.00 },
+    "Lubricants":          { "Lubricants": 1.00 },
+    "Waxes":               { "Industry": 0.60, "Other": 0.40 },
+    "Other":               { "Petrochemicals": 0.60, "Lubricants": 0.20, "Other": 0.20 }
+  },
+  "citations": {
+    "Gasoline":            "IEA Oil 2024, Table 3.1 — road transport accounts for >95% of US motor gasoline demand.",
+    "Diesel / Distillate": "IEA Oil 2024 + EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025 — distillate fuel oil split: road 65%, industry/farm 15%, marine bunker 10%, rail 5%.",
+    "Kerosene / Jet":      "EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly — jet fuel is functionally single-use in aviation.",
+    "Naphtha":             "IEA Petrochemicals Outlook 2024 — naphtha is the dominant steam-cracker feedstock; balance is gasoline blendstock.",
+    "Fuel oil":            "IEA Oil 2024 — residual fuel oil split: marine bunker 50%, industrial boilers 30%, residual power generation 20%.",
+    "LPG":                 "EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2025 — propane/butane split: petchem feedstock 45%, residential heating 40%, industry 15%.",
+    "Asphalt":             "EIA — asphalt + road oil is allocated to roads, roofing, and construction.",
+    "Coke":                "IEA Oil 2024 — petroleum coke split: industrial fuel (cement, steel) 70%, electricity generation 30%.",
+    "Petrochem feedstock": "EIA refinery-yield definition — petrochemical feedstock by construction goes to petrochemicals.",
+    "Lubricants":          "EIA — lubricants are functionally single-use as lubricants.",
+    "Waxes":               "EIA — petroleum waxes go to candles, coatings, packaging (industry-bucketed).",
+    "Other":               "Catch-all bucket — assumed 60% petchem, 20% lubes, 20% other per EIA misc allocation."
+  }
+}