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‎index.html‎

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rel="stylesheet"
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/>
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<title>Is Europe Falling Behind?</title>
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<script type="module" crossorigin src="/special-operations/assets/index-DaC9dkmI.js"></script>
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<link rel="stylesheet" crossorigin href="/special-operations/assets/index-BheuV3h4.css">
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<script type="module" crossorigin src="/special-operations/assets/index-CwahgbZA.js"></script>
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<link rel="stylesheet" crossorigin href="/special-operations/assets/index-Do4rh7yP.css">
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</head>
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<body>
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<div id="app">
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Is Europe <em>really</em> falling behind?
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</h1>
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<p class="lede">
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Choose an economic indicator, animate it through time, and compare a
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handful of countries across the metrics that matter.
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Not in the simple way the headline suggests. Since 2000, European
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economies kept growing, but public markets compounded much more
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aggressively in the United States and selected Asian markets.
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</p>
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<p class="story-cue">
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Read the charts from left to right: first the real economy, then the
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investable market proxy, then the global index weight that investors
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actually experience.
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</p>
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</header>
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<section class="findings-panel" aria-labelledby="findings-title">
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<div class="section-kicker">
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<p class="eyebrow">Key findings</p>
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<h2 id="findings-title">Europe grew. Markets repriced the world elsewhere.</h2>
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</div>
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<div class="finding-grid">
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<article class="finding-card">
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<span class="finding-card__label">Real economy</span>
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<strong>2.48x</strong>
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<p>Average European GDP growth by 2023, with GDP per capita also more than doubling.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="finding-card">
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<span class="finding-card__label">Market proxy</span>
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<strong>1.15x</strong>
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<p>Average European country-ETF growth, versus 2.28x for North America.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="finding-card">
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<span class="finding-card__label">Clearest split</span>
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<strong>0.90x vs 2.51x</strong>
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<p>Germany's ETF ended below its 2000 level, while the US ETF more than doubled.</p>
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</article>
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<article class="finding-card">
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<span class="finding-card__label">Global weight</span>
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<strong>63.7%</strong>
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<p>The US share of MSCI ACWI in May 2026, up from 53.0% in April 2015.</p>
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</article>
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</div>
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</section>
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<main class="mvp-layout">
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<section class="map-panel" aria-label="Interactive map">
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<section class="guided-story" aria-label="Guided data story">
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<div class="story-scroll">
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<div class="scroll-hint" aria-hidden="true">
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<span>Scroll</span>
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<i class="scroll-hint__arrow"></i>
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</div>
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<article class="story-step" data-story-preset="real-economy">
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<p class="eyebrow">Act 1 &middot; Real economy</p>
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<h2>Europe did not stop growing.</h2>
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<p>
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Start with GDP in regional mode. By 2023, Europe is around
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2.48x its 2000 GDP baseline, and GDP per capita also more than
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doubled. The first lesson is that the story is not collapse.
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</p>
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<div class="story-stat-row">
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<span><strong>2.48x</strong> Europe GDP</span>
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<span><strong>2.18x</strong> Europe GDP per capita</span>
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</div>
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="real-economy">
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Show GDP view
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</button>
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</article>
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<article class="story-step" data-story-preset="market-gap">
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<p class="eyebrow">Act 2 &middot; Market proxy</p>
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<h2>The market line tells a harsher story.</h2>
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<p>
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Switch to country ETF prices and the gap opens. Germany and the
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UK sit below their 2000 ETF baselines, while the US ETF more
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than doubles and Korea becomes the key counterexample.
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</p>
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<div class="story-stat-row">
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<span><strong>0.90x</strong> Germany ETF</span>
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<span><strong>0.62x</strong> UK ETF</span>
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<span><strong>2.51x</strong> US ETF</span>
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</div>
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="market-gap">
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Show ETF view
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</button>
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</article>
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<article class="story-step" data-story-preset="scatter-gap">
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<p class="eyebrow">Act 3 &middot; Uneven gap</p>
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<h2>Prosperity and markets separate.</h2>
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<p>
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The scatter view fixes the comparison: GDP per capita growth on
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one axis, ETF growth on the other. Countries to the upper right
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turned prosperity into investable market returns; Europe is more
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mixed.
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</p>
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<div class="story-stat-row">
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<span><strong>Korea</strong> high market response</span>
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<span><strong>Germany</strong> GDP without ETF lift</span>
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</div>
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="scatter-gap">
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Show scatter view
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</button>
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</article>
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<article class="story-step" data-story-preset="market-cap">
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<p class="eyebrow">Act 4 &middot; Market cap</p>
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<h2>Listed-company value compounds elsewhere.</h2>
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<p>
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Market capitalization makes the asymmetry harder to miss. The
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US compounds strongly, Korea is exceptional, and several major
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European markets trail despite real-economy growth.
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</p>
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<div class="story-stat-row">
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<span><strong>11.49x</strong> Korea market cap</span>
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<span><strong>3.24x</strong> US market cap</span>
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<span><strong>1.14x</strong> UK market cap</span>
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</div>
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="market-cap">
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Show market-cap view
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</button>
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</article>
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<article class="story-step" data-story-preset="acwi-latest">
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<p class="eyebrow">Act 5 &middot; Global index</p>
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<h2>The index investors buy became more concentrated.</h2>
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<p>
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The ACWI snapshots translate the country story into portfolio
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exposure. From 2015 to 2026, US weight grows and technology
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becomes the dominant sector block.
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</p>
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<div class="story-stat-row">
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<span><strong>63.7%</strong> US ACWI weight</span>
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<span><strong>30.7%</strong> information technology</span>
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</div>
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<div class="story-button-row">
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="acwi-first">
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Show 2015 ACWI
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</button>
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="acwi-latest">
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Show latest ACWI
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</button>
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</div>
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</article>
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<article class="story-step story-step--explore" data-story-preset="explore">
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<p class="eyebrow">Explore yourself</p>
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<h2>Now test the thesis.</h2>
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<p>
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Use the controls to change the indicator, year, geography, and
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scale. The guided sections set the argument; the explorer lets
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you look for exceptions.
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</p>
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<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="explore">
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Reset explorer
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</button>
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</article>
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</div>
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<section class="map-panel story-stage" aria-label="Interactive story stage">
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<div class="section-kicker section-kicker--panel">
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<p class="eyebrow">Evidence explorer</p>
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<h2>Compare the growth story from four angles</h2>
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<p>
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Start with GDP to see that Europe is not standing still, then
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switch to ETF Price and Market Cap to see where the gap opens.
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Use countries for concrete examples, or regions for the broader pattern.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div class="control-bar">
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<div class="control-group control-group--inputs">
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<label class="control-field">
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</div>
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<div id="map-chart" class="map-chart"></div>
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<p class="chart-note">
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Map mode shows where each indicator has grown since 2000. Scatter
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mode fixes the question to prosperity growth versus investable
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market growth, making outliers like the US, Korea, Germany, and the
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UK easier to compare.
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</p>
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<aside id="spider-panel" class="spider-overlay" aria-label="Spider comparison" hidden>
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<div class="spider-heading">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Evolution</p>
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<h2 id="evolution-title">Indicator trajectory</h2>
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<p class="panel-copy">
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The line chart turns the selected year into a trajectory. Look
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for whether the gap appears gradually, after shocks, or only in
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the latest period.
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</p>
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</div>
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<div id="evolution-chart" class="chart"></div>
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</section>
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<section class="treemap-panel" aria-label="Country / sector treemap">
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<div class="treemap-panel__heading">
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<div>
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<p class="eyebrow">Market composition</p>
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<h2 id="treemap-title">ACWI weights by country and sector</h2>
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<p class="eyebrow">Final act</p>
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<h2 id="treemap-title">Where global equity weight moved</h2>
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<p class="panel-copy">
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The ACWI snapshots show why the market gap matters: global
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equity exposure became more concentrated in the US and in
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technology-heavy sectors.
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</p>
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</div>
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<label class="control-field control-field--treemap-time">
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<span class="control-label">
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<section class="treemap-card" aria-label="Country treemap">
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<div class="treemap-card__heading">
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<h3>MSCI ACWI Countries</h3>
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<p>Hover for sector breakdowns</p>
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<p>Hover for sector breakdowns. Watch the US tile expand over time.</p>
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</div>
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<div id="treemap-chart" class="chart"></div>
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</section>
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</section>
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</div>
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</section>
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</section>
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</section>
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</main>
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<footer>
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<p>
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Growth mode normalizes every country to its year-2000 baseline.
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Absolute mode reveals economic scale where the underlying units are
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comparable; ETF prices remain a normalized public-market proxy.
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Methodology: the main comparison covers 20 countries with comparable
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country ETF histories from 2000 to 2023. Growth mode normalizes each
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country to its year-2000 baseline. Absolute mode is shown only where
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units are comparable; ETF prices remain a normalized investable-market
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proxy.
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</p>
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<p>
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Market capitalization comes from World Bank listed-company market cap
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data where reliable. Recent gaps are filled with the matching iShares
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MSCI country ETF price as a proxy; Russia, China, India, and Sweden
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are excluded from the market-cap comparison because of spotty data.
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</p>
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</footer>
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</div>

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