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Expand file tree Collapse file tree Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change @@ -110,10 +110,15 @@ <h2>The benchmark is not arbitrary.</h2>
110110 < p class ="eyebrow "> Act 3 · Divergence hypothesis</ p >
111111 < h2 > The gap opens when we change the measure.</ h2 >
112112 < p >
113- The central hypothesis is not that Europe stopped producing
114- output. It is that output growth translated less cleanly into
115- public-market returns. The scatter view makes that split visible:
116- prosperity growth on one axis, ETF growth on the other.
113+ This leads us to the hypothesis that it isn't that Europe
114+ stopped producing output, it is that output growth diverged from
115+ broader market indicators. We apply a break-fit test to find
116+ divergence points in various metrics, and find that candidate
117+ break years cluster around the 2008 crisis window. The
118+ normalization view lets you explore these critical years and
119+ view the apparent divergence - much wider for ETF data and
120+ market cap, but much narrower for GDP, and especially after
121+ adjusting for PPP.
117122 </ p >
118123 < div class ="story-stat-row ">
119124 < span > < strong > 2.51x</ strong > US ETF</ span >
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