Skip to content

Commit e3659fa

Browse files
sankalpgambhirsankalpgambhir
committed
deploy: f3f8471 
1 parent ac8ea94 commit e3659fa

5 files changed

Lines changed: 97 additions & 104 deletions

File tree

‎assets/index-CeB9-hin.css‎

Lines changed: 1 addition & 0 deletions
Some generated files are not rendered by default. Learn more about customizing how changed files appear on GitHub.

‎assets/index-CrJT5TjK.js‎

Lines changed: 0 additions & 39 deletions
This file was deleted.

‎assets/index-D1x4zNMn.js‎

Lines changed: 42 additions & 0 deletions
Some generated files are not rendered by default. Learn more about customizing how changed files appear on GitHub.

‎assets/index-DcNdHJkF.css‎

Lines changed: 0 additions & 1 deletion
This file was deleted.

‎index.html‎

Lines changed: 54 additions & 64 deletions
Original file line numberDiff line numberDiff line change
@@ -10,8 +10,8 @@
1010
rel="stylesheet"
1111
/>
1212
<title>Is Europe Falling Behind?</title>
13-
<script type="module" crossorigin src="./assets/index-CrJT5TjK.js"></script>
14-
<link rel="stylesheet" crossorigin href="./assets/index-DcNdHJkF.css">
13+
<script type="module" crossorigin src="./assets/index-D1x4zNMn.js"></script>
14+
<link rel="stylesheet" crossorigin href="./assets/index-CeB9-hin.css">
1515
</head>
1616
<body>
1717
<div id="app">
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@ <h1>
3737
<section class="findings-panel" aria-labelledby="findings-title">
3838
<div class="section-kicker">
3939
<p class="eyebrow">Key findings</p>
40-
<h2 id="findings-title">Europe grew. Markets repriced the world elsewhere.</h2>
40+
<h2 id="findings-title">Europe kept growing, but listed-equity gains and index weight shifted toward the US.</h2>
4141
</div>
4242
<div class="finding-grid">
4343
<article class="finding-card">
@@ -94,10 +94,11 @@ <h2>Europe did not stop growing.</h2>
9494
<h2>The benchmark is not arbitrary.</h2>
9595
<p>
9696
The United States and Europe are both high-income, institutionally
97-
mature markets that matter in global portfolios. Comparing them
98-
lets us separate a real-economy question from a listed-market
99-
question: did people get poorer, or did public equity value
100-
compound somewhere else?
97+
mature markets that matter in global portfolios. From here on,
98+
we keep the comparison anchored on these rich-market blocs so
99+
later gaps are not driven by emerging-market catch-up. The
100+
question is whether output growth diverged, or whether listed
101+
equity gains accumulated much more strongly in the US.
101102
</p>
102103
<div class="story-stat-row">
103104
<span><strong>Rich-market</strong> baseline</span>
@@ -112,15 +113,15 @@ <h2>The benchmark is not arbitrary.</h2>
112113
<p class="eyebrow">Act 3 &middot; Divergence hypothesis</p>
113114
<h2>The gap opens when we change the measure.</h2>
114115
<p>
115-
This leads us to the hypothesis that it isn't that Europe
116-
stopped producing output, it is that output growth diverged from
117-
broader market indicators. We apply a break-fit test to find
118-
divergence points in various metrics, and find that candidate
119-
break years cluster around the 2008 crisis window. The
120-
normalization view lets you explore these critical years and
121-
view the apparent divergence - much wider for ETF data and
122-
market cap, but much narrower for GDP, and especially after
123-
adjusting for PPP.
116+
This leads to a narrower hypothesis: Europe did not stop
117+
producing output, but market-linked indicators pulled away
118+
after the crisis. To check that, we fit the log US/Europe gap
119+
with the same piecewise trend at each candidate break year from
120+
2005 to 2015 and rank those fits by BIC. The best-ranked years
121+
cluster around the 2008 crisis window. The normalization view
122+
then lets you stress-test the split across base years and
123+
lenses: it is widest for ETF and market-cap proxies, narrower
124+
for GDP, and narrower still after PPP adjustment.
124125
</p>
125126
<div class="story-stat-row">
126127
<span><strong>2.51x</strong> US ETF</span>
@@ -147,25 +148,25 @@ <h2>Europe is not one datapoint.</h2>
147148
<span><strong>1.52x</strong> US ETF</span>
148149
<span><strong>Switzerland</strong> main exception</span>
149150
</div>
150-
<p class="story-analysis-note">
151-
Read: Europe is heterogeneous, but no selected European country
152-
carries the market story the way the US does. The gap is not only
153-
a single weak country dragging down the average.
154-
</p>
155151
<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="europe-dispersion">
156152
Show Europe spread
157153
</button>
158154
</article>
159155

160156
<article class="story-step" data-story-preset="sector-drivers">
161157
<p class="eyebrow">Act 5 &middot; Industry drivers</p>
162-
<h2>The winning sectors sit elsewhere.</h2>
158+
<h2>The sectors driving divergence.</h2>
163159
<p>
164160
The ACWI snapshots translate the country story into sector
165161
exposure. From 2015 to 2026, global index weight becomes more
166162
concentrated in the United States, and information technology
167163
becomes the dominant sector block.
168164
</p>
165+
<p>
166+
The US begins with a strong weight for tech, and as the sector
167+
inflates in value over the decade outpacing all others, the US
168+
share of the ACWI outpaces the rest of the world.
169+
</p>
169170
<div class="story-stat-row">
170171
<span><strong>63.7%</strong> US ACWI weight</span>
171172
<span><strong>30.7%</strong> information technology</span>
@@ -182,31 +183,19 @@ <h2>The winning sectors sit elsewhere.</h2>
182183

183184
<article class="story-step story-step--explore" data-story-preset="wrap-up">
184185
<p class="eyebrow">Conclusion &middot; What falling behind means</p>
185-
<h2>Europe is not collapsing. Listed-market power moved elsewhere.</h2>
186+
<h2>Europe kept growing. Market-linked gains pulled away.</h2>
186187
<p>
187188
The final scatter keeps the comparison narrow: selected Europe
188-
versus the US. Output per person is not wildly different, but the
189-
market proxy is. Europe did not stop growing; the listed-market
190-
upside concentrated elsewhere.
189+
versus the US. Output per person remains in the same broad
190+
neighborhood, but market proxies do not. The claim is not that
191+
Europe stopped producing; it is that listed-equity gains and
192+
benchmark index weight accumulated much more strongly in the US.
191193
</p>
192194
<div class="story-stat-row">
193195
<span><strong>1.18x-1.26x</strong> Europe GDP/person</span>
194196
<span><strong>0.43x-1.15x</strong> Europe ETF</span>
195197
<span><strong>1.52x</strong> US ETF</span>
196198
</div>
197-
<div class="story-verdict-panel" aria-label="Conclusion verdict">
198-
<strong>Final read</strong>
199-
<p>
200-
The evidence does not support a simple European collapse story.
201-
It supports a more specific claim: Europe kept growing, but the
202-
investable market story shifted toward the US, especially through
203-
listed equity concentration and technology-heavy sectors.
204-
</p>
205-
<p>
206-
The limitation is equally important: these charts measure output
207-
and listed capital, not the full well-being of households.
208-
</p>
209-
</div>
210199
<button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="wrap-up">
211200
Show final comparison
212201
</button>
@@ -297,17 +286,16 @@ <h2>Profile comparison</h2>
297286
<p class="eyebrow">2008 break</p>
298287
<h2>The break-year test points to the crisis window.</h2>
299288
<p>
300-
This is the Act 3 evidence: candidate break years cluster around
301-
the crisis window, and the interactive normalization explorer
302-
lets you test whether the split depends on the base year or lens.
289+
The break-year finder and normalization explorer let you inspect
290+
when the split appears and how much it depends on the base year,
291+
metric, and price adjustment.
303292
</p>
304293
</div>
305294
<section class="story-break-subpanel" aria-label="Interactive normalization explorer">
306295
<h3>Interactive divergence explorer</h3>
307296
<p>
308297
Choose the base year and switch between GDP lenses, ETF, and
309-
market-cap proxies. This is the original interactive divergence
310-
plot, restored inside the divergence act.
298+
market-cap proxies.
311299
</p>
312300
<div id="normalization-explorer" class="normalization-explorer"></div>
313301
</section>
@@ -382,28 +370,30 @@ <h3>MSCI ACWI sectors</h3>
382370
<section class="story-close-panel" aria-label="Conclusion and limitations">
383371
<div class="section-kicker">
384372
<p class="eyebrow">Wrap up</p>
385-
<h2>Europe is not simply falling behind. It is falling behind in a specific market story.</h2>
373+
<h2>Europe kept growing, but listed-equity gains and global index weight shifted toward the US.</h2>
374+
</div>
375+
<div class="story-verdict-panel story-verdict-panel--close" aria-label="Final read">
376+
<strong>Final read</strong>
386377
<p>
387-
The evidence supports a narrower thesis: Europe continued to grow,
388-
but the investable-market rewards, sector concentration, and global
389-
index weight shifted more strongly toward the United States. The
390-
final question is whether these indicators track broad well-being,
391-
or mostly the returns to listed capital.
378+
The evidence does not support a simple European collapse story.
379+
GDP and GDP per capita reject that reading. The sharper divergence
380+
appears in ETF, market-cap, and ACWI views, where listed-equity
381+
rewards and global benchmark weight shift much more strongly toward
382+
the United States.
383+
</p>
384+
<p>
385+
The break-year check compares the same piecewise fit of the log
386+
US/Europe gap across candidate years. Those rankings repeatedly land
387+
near the 2008 crisis window, which makes the crisis period a
388+
plausible turning point for the market story even though the
389+
PPP-adjusted output split is milder.
390+
</p>
391+
<p>
392+
The limitation is equally important: these charts measure output
393+
and listed capital, not the full well-being of households. The
394+
next question is how far market gains track lived economic welfare
395+
rather than asset concentration.
392396
</p>
393-
</div>
394-
<div class="story-close-grid">
395-
<article class="story-close-card">
396-
<h3>What the data can say</h3>
397-
<p>GDP and GDP per capita reject a simple stagnation story. ETF, market-cap, and ACWI views show the sharper divergence.</p>
398-
</article>
399-
<article class="story-close-card">
400-
<h3>What it cannot fully say</h3>
401-
<p>Market data does not measure public services, inequality, household balance sheets, or lived well-being directly.</p>
402-
</article>
403-
<article class="story-close-card">
404-
<h3>How to read the project</h3>
405-
<p>Treat the guided story as the argument and the controls as the audit trail: change the indicator, year, and geography to look for exceptions.</p>
406-
</article>
407397
</div>
408398
</section>
409399

0 commit comments

Comments
 (0)