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35 | 35 | <section class="findings-panel" aria-labelledby="findings-title"> |
36 | 36 | <div class="section-kicker"> |
37 | 37 | <p class="eyebrow">Key findings</p> |
38 | | - <h2 id="findings-title">Europe grew. Markets repriced the world elsewhere.</h2> |
| 38 | + <h2 id="findings-title">Europe grew. Public equity gains concentrated in the US.</h2> |
39 | 39 | </div> |
40 | 40 | <div class="finding-grid"> |
41 | 41 | <article class="finding-card"> |
@@ -92,10 +92,11 @@ <h2>Europe did not stop growing.</h2> |
92 | 92 | <h2>The benchmark is not arbitrary.</h2> |
93 | 93 | <p> |
94 | 94 | The United States and Europe are both high-income, institutionally |
95 | | - mature markets that matter in global portfolios. Comparing them |
96 | | - lets us separate a real-economy question from a listed-market |
97 | | - question: did people get poorer, or did public equity value |
98 | | - compound somewhere else? |
| 95 | + mature markets that matter in global portfolios. From here on, |
| 96 | + we keep the comparison anchored on these rich-market blocs so |
| 97 | + later gaps are not driven by emerging-market catch-up. The |
| 98 | + question is whether output growth diverged, or whether listed |
| 99 | + equity gains accumulated much more strongly in the US. |
99 | 100 | </p> |
100 | 101 | <div class="story-stat-row"> |
101 | 102 | <span><strong>Rich-market</strong> baseline</span> |
@@ -145,25 +146,25 @@ <h2>Europe is not one datapoint.</h2> |
145 | 146 | <span><strong>1.52x</strong> US ETF</span> |
146 | 147 | <span><strong>Switzerland</strong> main exception</span> |
147 | 148 | </div> |
148 | | - <p class="story-analysis-note"> |
149 | | - Read: Europe is heterogeneous, but no selected European country |
150 | | - carries the market story the way the US does. The gap is not only |
151 | | - a single weak country dragging down the average. |
152 | | - </p> |
153 | 149 | <button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="europe-dispersion"> |
154 | 150 | Show Europe spread |
155 | 151 | </button> |
156 | 152 | </article> |
157 | 153 |
|
158 | 154 | <article class="story-step" data-story-preset="sector-drivers"> |
159 | 155 | <p class="eyebrow">Act 5 · Industry drivers</p> |
160 | | - <h2>The winning sectors sit elsewhere.</h2> |
| 156 | + <h2>The sectors driving divergence.</h2> |
161 | 157 | <p> |
162 | 158 | The ACWI snapshots translate the country story into sector |
163 | 159 | exposure. From 2015 to 2026, global index weight becomes more |
164 | 160 | concentrated in the United States, and information technology |
165 | 161 | becomes the dominant sector block. |
166 | 162 | </p> |
| 163 | + <p> |
| 164 | + The US begins with a strong weight for tech, and as the sector |
| 165 | + inflates in value over the decade outpacing all others, the US |
| 166 | + share of the ACWI outpaces the rest of the world. |
| 167 | + </p> |
167 | 168 | <div class="story-stat-row"> |
168 | 169 | <span><strong>63.7%</strong> US ACWI weight</span> |
169 | 170 | <span><strong>30.7%</strong> information technology</span> |
@@ -195,15 +196,29 @@ <h2>Europe is not collapsing. Listed-market power moved elsewhere.</h2> |
195 | 196 | <div class="story-verdict-panel" aria-label="Conclusion verdict"> |
196 | 197 | <strong>Final read</strong> |
197 | 198 | <p> |
198 | | - The evidence does not support a simple European collapse story. |
199 | | - It supports a more specific claim: Europe kept growing, but the |
200 | | - investable market story shifted toward the US, especially through |
201 | | - listed equity concentration and technology-heavy sectors. |
| 199 | + The evidence does not support a simple European collapse |
| 200 | + story. It supports a more specific claim: Europe continued to |
| 201 | + grow, but was outpaced in capital markets, especially through |
| 202 | + listed equity concentration in the US and in technology-heavy |
| 203 | + sectors. The divergence is much sharper in market proxies than |
| 204 | + in real output, and the gap opens around the 2008 crisis |
| 205 | + window. |
| 206 | + <!-- Europe kept growing, but the |
| 207 | + market values shifted toward the US, especially through |
| 208 | + listed equity concentration and technology-heavy sectors. --> |
202 | 209 | </p> |
203 | 210 | <p> |
204 | 211 | The limitation is equally important: these charts measure output |
205 | 212 | and listed capital, not the full well-being of households. |
206 | 213 | </p> |
| 214 | + <p> |
| 215 | + It leads to a final question: do market gains and indicators |
| 216 | + really represent lived well-being trends? The data |
| 217 | + demonstrates a divergence in perceived market values, but the |
| 218 | + divergence is much smaller in real output terms. This |
| 219 | + necessitates a deeper future focus on how and whether market |
| 220 | + trends translate to broader economic welfare. |
| 221 | + </p> |
207 | 222 | </div> |
208 | 223 | <button class="story-preset-button" type="button" data-story-action="wrap-up"> |
209 | 224 | Show final comparison |
@@ -295,17 +310,16 @@ <h2>Profile comparison</h2> |
295 | 310 | <p class="eyebrow">2008 break</p> |
296 | 311 | <h2>The break-year test points to the crisis window.</h2> |
297 | 312 | <p> |
298 | | - This is the Act 3 evidence: candidate break years cluster around |
299 | | - the crisis window, and the interactive normalization explorer |
300 | | - lets you test whether the split depends on the base year or lens. |
| 313 | + The break-year finder and normalization explorer let you inspect |
| 314 | + when the split appears and how much it depends on the base year, |
| 315 | + metric, and price adjustment. |
301 | 316 | </p> |
302 | 317 | </div> |
303 | 318 | <section class="story-break-subpanel" aria-label="Interactive normalization explorer"> |
304 | 319 | <h3>Interactive divergence explorer</h3> |
305 | 320 | <p> |
306 | 321 | Choose the base year and switch between GDP lenses, ETF, and |
307 | | - market-cap proxies. This is the original interactive divergence |
308 | | - plot, restored inside the divergence act. |
| 322 | + market-cap proxies. |
309 | 323 | </p> |
310 | 324 | <div id="normalization-explorer" class="normalization-explorer"></div> |
311 | 325 | </section> |
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