Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe:
My understanding is that there is a prior for the initial Rt value. In addition, the value of Rt is assumed to vary as either GP or RW over the time series, which allows for extrapolation. For seasonal diseases we have information on past trends which could be informative of current / future trends of Rt.
Describe the solution you'd like:
A way to incorporate a prior on future Rt based on the corresponding time of year and past season data, to help guide or regularise the forecast trend.
Additional context:
Just wanted to document the idea somewhere. We use crude past season models, but would be great to incorporate this information more mechanistically by e.g. using EpiNow2
Is your feature request related to a problem? Please describe:
My understanding is that there is a prior for the initial Rt value. In addition, the value of Rt is assumed to vary as either GP or RW over the time series, which allows for extrapolation. For seasonal diseases we have information on past trends which could be informative of current / future trends of Rt.
Describe the solution you'd like:
A way to incorporate a prior on future Rt based on the corresponding time of year and past season data, to help guide or regularise the forecast trend.
Additional context:
Just wanted to document the idea somewhere. We use crude past season models, but would be great to incorporate this information more mechanistically by e.g. using EpiNow2