TPR sensor-bias campaign: +/-3C OAT bias, first detection-rate records (#33)

--bias/--reuse harness flags replay biased inputs against cached healthy
runs. Both directions of the CLU-09 biased-OAT cascade confirmed:
+3C caught by AHU-FC-062/002/068 (3/3 loops each, 2.3-28 h), -3C by
AHU-FC-051 (3/3, ~40 min)/003/062, non-OAT rules correctly silent.
simulation_tpr validation blocks on the five detecting cards
(failures = missed detections; SCHEMA clarified).

Co-authored-by: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Author: jscott3201

SCHEMA.md

@@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ left to right.
 
 **`validation:` (optional frontmatter block, adopted 2026-08-18).** Records
 empirical validation runs against the card's rule. A list; each entry:
-`kind` (`simulation_fpr` | `simulation_tpr`), `harness` (e.g.
+`kind` (`simulation_fpr` | `simulation_tpr` — for `simulation_tpr`, `failures` counts MISSED detections), `harness` (e.g.
 `simharness/v1`), `date`, `fleet` (one-line description of buildings ×
 climates × period), `scenarios` (count), `failures` (count), optional
 `notes` (one line, e.g. the finding a failure represents). Results are

faults/ahu/AHU-FC-002/card.md

@@ -50,6 +50,13 @@ emissions:
   scope: "1|2"
   method: QUALITATIVE_EMISSIONS
 validation:
+  - kind: simulation_tpr
+    harness: simharness/v1
+    date: 2026-08-18
+    fleet: "TPR: +/-3 degC OAT bias injected into replay inputs (faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD), B2B OfficeMedium-4004 July week, 3 VAV loops; failures = missed detections; baseline-confounded rules excluded from attribution"
+    scenarios: 3
+    failures: 0
+    notes: "+3 degC direction: detected 3/3 loops (~5-28 h); correctly silent at -3"
   - kind: simulation_fpr
     harness: simharness/v1
     date: 2026-08-18

faults/ahu/AHU-FC-003/card.md

@@ -50,6 +50,13 @@ emissions:
   scope: "1|2"
   method: QUALITATIVE_EMISSIONS
 validation:
+  - kind: simulation_tpr
+    harness: simharness/v1
+    date: 2026-08-18
+    fleet: "TPR: +/-3 degC OAT bias injected into replay inputs (faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD), B2B OfficeMedium-4004 July week, 3 VAV loops; failures = missed detections; baseline-confounded rules excluded from attribution"
+    scenarios: 3
+    failures: 1
+    notes: "-3 degC direction: detected 2/3 loops; correctly silent at +3"
   - kind: simulation_fpr
     harness: simharness/v1
     date: 2026-08-18

faults/ahu/AHU-FC-051/card.md

@@ -71,6 +71,13 @@ emissions:
   scope: "2"
   method: DIRECT_EMISSIONS
 validation:
+  - kind: simulation_tpr
+    harness: simharness/v1
+    date: 2026-08-18
+    fleet: "TPR: +/-3 degC OAT bias injected into replay inputs (faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD), B2B OfficeMedium-4004 July week, 3 VAV loops; failures = missed detections; baseline-confounded rules excluded from attribution"
+    scenarios: 3
+    failures: 0
+    notes: "-3 degC direction: detected 3/3 loops within ~40 min of the first gated window; correctly silent at +3 (direction mirror of AHU-FC-068)"
   - kind: simulation_fpr
     harness: simharness/v1
     date: 2026-08-18

faults/ahu/AHU-FC-062/card.md

@@ -51,6 +51,13 @@ emissions:
   scope: "1|2"
   method: QUALITATIVE_EMISSIONS
 validation:
+  - kind: simulation_tpr
+    harness: simharness/v1
+    date: 2026-08-18
+    fleet: "TPR: +/-3 degC OAT bias injected into replay inputs (faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD), B2B OfficeMedium-4004 July week, 3 VAV loops; failures = missed detections; baseline-confounded rules excluded from attribution"
+    scenarios: 6
+    failures: 1
+    notes: "both directions: 3/3 at +3 degC (~4.5-28 h), 2/3 at -3 degC — empirical confirmation of the CLU-09 biased-OAT cascade"
   - kind: simulation_fpr
     harness: simharness/v1
     date: 2026-08-18

faults/ahu/AHU-FC-068/card.md

@@ -73,6 +73,13 @@ emissions:
   scope: "2"
   method: DIRECT_EMISSIONS
 validation:
+  - kind: simulation_tpr
+    harness: simharness/v1
+    date: 2026-08-18
+    fleet: "TPR: +/-3 degC OAT bias injected into replay inputs (faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD), B2B OfficeMedium-4004 July week, 3 VAV loops; failures = missed detections; baseline-confounded rules excluded from attribution"
+    scenarios: 3
+    failures: 0
+    notes: "+3 degC direction: detected 3/3 loops ~2.3 h into the first gated window; correctly silent at -3 (direction mirror of AHU-FC-051)"
   - kind: simulation_fpr
     harness: simharness/v1
     date: 2026-08-18

tools/simharness/README.md

@@ -84,6 +84,20 @@ fault by construction; excluded from FPR claims, useful as a
 known-positive. Reset-family rules are likewise excluded (constant-setpoint
 baselines read "reset absent" by construction).
 
+## TPR: sensor-bias campaigns (`--bias point=delta`, `--reuse`)
+
+Injects a bias into the replayed inputs of an already-simulated healthy run
+(the faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD case; zero EnergyPlus time). FAILs are
+DETECTIONS; attribution requires differencing against the healthy baseline
+(rules that fail on the healthy run — the DCV pair — are confounded and
+excluded). First campaign, +/-3 degC OAT bias (OfficeMedium-4004, July):
+the envelope family and the direction-appropriate economizer rule catch the
+bias in both directions — +3: AHU-FC-062 (3/3), 002 (3/3), 068 (3/3,
+~2.3 h); -3: 051 (3/3, ~40 min), 003 (2/3), 062 (2/3) — while a dozen
+non-OAT rules stay correctly silent. Empirical demonstration of the CLU-09
+biased-OAT cascade; recorded as `simulation_tpr` validation blocks
+(failures = missed detections).
+
 ## Plant mode (DOE prototypes)
 
 `--mode plant` maps CHW/HW plant loops instead of air loops: loop

tools/simharness/harness.py

@@ -446,6 +446,11 @@ def main():
     runp.add_argument("--begin", default="7-6", help="run period start M-D")
     runp.add_argument("--end", default="7-12", help="run period end M-D")
     runp.add_argument("--mode", default="airloop", choices=["airloop", "plant"])
+    runp.add_argument("--reuse", action="store_true",
+                      help="reuse an existing eplusout.csv instead of re-running EnergyPlus")
+    runp.add_argument("--bias", default=None, metavar="POINT=DELTA",
+                      help="TPR mode: add DELTA to POINT in the replayed inputs "
+                           "(faulted-sensor-as-seen-by-FDD); FAILs are DETECTIONS")
     args = ap.parse_args()
 
     bdir = Path(args.building)
@@ -464,8 +469,10 @@ def main():
         patched = patch_plant(b, pn, begin, end)
         pj = out / "patched.epjson"
         pj.write_text(json.dumps(patched))
-        print(f"plant loops: {list(pn)}; running EnergyPlus…")
-        csv_path = run_energyplus(pj, epw, out / "ep")
+        csv_path = out / "ep" / "eplusout.csv"
+        if not (args.reuse and csv_path.is_file()):
+            print(f"plant loops: {list(pn)}; running EnergyPlus…")
+            csv_path = run_energyplus(pj, epw, out / "ep")
         fams = extract_plant(csv_path, pn, b)
         rules = {}
         for fam in fams:
@@ -519,9 +526,18 @@ def main():
     patched = patch(b, loops, begin, end)
     pj = out / "patched.epjson"
     pj.write_text(json.dumps(patched))
-    print(f"loops: {list(loops)}; running EnergyPlus…")
-    csv_path = run_energyplus(pj, epw, out / "ep")
+    csv_path = out / "ep" / "eplusout.csv"
+    if not (args.reuse and csv_path.is_file()):
+        print(f"loops: {list(loops)}; running EnergyPlus…")
+        csv_path = run_energyplus(pj, epw, out / "ep")
     loops_pts = extract(csv_path, loops)
+    if args.bias:
+        pt, delta = args.bias.split("=")
+        delta = float(delta)
+        for pts in loops_pts.values():
+            if pt in pts:
+                pts[pt] = [round(v + delta, ROUND) for v in pts[pt]]
+        print(f"TPR bias applied: {pt} += {delta} — FAILs below are DETECTIONS")
     rules = eligible_rules()
     print(f"eligible rules (points ⊆ mapped): {sorted(rules)}")
     log = emit_and_replay(bdir.name, loops_pts, rules, out)