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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en">
<head><meta charset="UTF-8"><title>CFPE Methodology v2.0</title>
<script src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/mermaid@10/dist/mermaid.min.js"></script>
<style>
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</style> <meta property="og:title" content="CFPE Methodology v2.0 — Bayesian Foresight Engine">
<meta property="og:description" content="Cascading Bayesian Foresight Engine with historical back-casting calibration (1976-2026, 1950-2000, 1926-1976). 5 biases identified and corrected.">
<meta property="og:url" content="https://cfpe-methodology-dash.pages.dev">
<meta name="twitter:card" content="summary_large_image">
<meta name="description" content="CFPE Methodology v2.0: Cascading Bayesian Foresight Engine with back-casting calibration.">
<meta name="keywords" content="Bayesian forecasting,paradigm shift,back-casting,scenario testing,methodology">
</head>
<body><div class="container">
<header><h1>CFPE Methodology v2.0</h1><p>Cascading Bayesian Foresight Engine — Back-Casting Calibrated</p></header>
<div class="cards">
<div class="card"><h3>Methodology Pipeline (8 Stages)</h3>
<div class="row"><span>S0: Domain Scoping</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S1: Finding Synthesis</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S2: Candidate Generation</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S3: Assumption Audit</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S4: Adversarial Red-Team</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS (0% survival)</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S5: Bayesian Cascade Model</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S6: Thesis Optimization</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S7: Research Roadmap</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>S8: Calibration Register</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS</span></div>
</div>
<div class="card"><h3>Back-Casting Calibration</h3>
<table><tr><th>Back-Cast</th><th>Years</th><th>Key Finding</th></tr>
<tr><td>1976 → 2026</td><td>50</td><td>CFPE underpredicted technological shifts by 5-10x</td></tr>
<tr><td>1950 → 2000</td><td>50</td><td>Overpredicted speculative tech (fusion, flying cars)</td></tr>
<tr><td>1926 → 1976</td><td>50</td><td>Underpredicted engineering shifts, overpredicted theory</td></tr>
</table>
</div>
<div class="card"><h3>Validation Tests</h3>
<div class="row"><span>T1: Back-casting accuracy</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS (>60%)</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>T2: Calibration error</span><span class="badge badge-yellow">PARTIAL</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>T3: Adversarial robustness</span><span class="badge badge-green">PASS (0% survival)</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>T4: Evidence grading</span><span class="badge badge-yellow">NEEDS WORK</span></div>
<div class="row"><span>T5: Temporal resolution</span><span class="badge badge-yellow">PENDING</span></div>
</div>
<div class="card"><h3>Systematic Biases Identified</h3>
<table><tr><th>Bias</th><th>Correction</th></tr>
<tr><td>Underconfidence in near-term tech</td><td>Era 1 tech priors x3.0</td></tr>
<tr><td>Overconfidence in speculative theory</td><td>Era 3-4 theory priors x0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>Engineering vs theory asymmetry</td><td>3:1 asymmetry correction</td></tr>
<tr><td>"Already in pipeline" blindness</td><td>Add precursor detection module</td></tr>
<tr><td>Continuity baseline overconfidence</td><td>Adjust per field's rate of change</td></tr>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<div class="card"><h3>Reference Class Base Rates</h3>
<table><tr><th>Domain</th><th>Shifts/Decade</th></tr>
<tr><td>Computing/IT</td><td>~3</td></tr>
<tr><td>Physics (fundamental)</td><td>~0.3</td></tr>
<tr><td>Biology</td><td>~0.5</td></tr>
<tr><td>All science (aggregate)</td><td>~1.0</td></tr>
</table>
</div>
</div>
<div class="footer">
<p><strong>DOI:</strong> <a href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21389352" style="color:var(--blue)">10.5281/zenodo.21389352</a></p>
<p>CFPE Methodology v2.0 | QNFO Research Collective | 2026-07-16</p>
</div>
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