|
1 | | -# Current Active Track |
| 1 | +# Current Evidence Lines |
2 | 2 |
|
3 | | -## Status control |
| 3 | +## Read the status labels first |
4 | 4 |
|
5 | | -Before interpreting any result, read the canonical [Archived / Active / Planned status checklist](../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md). |
| 5 | +The canonical taxonomy is maintained in [`../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md`](../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md). |
6 | 6 |
|
7 | | -| Category | Canonical interpretation | |
| 7 | +| Status | Meaning | |
8 | 8 | |---|---| |
9 | | -| `ARCHIVED` | Completed, negative, null, superseded or design-only work preserved for lessons and meta-learning records | |
10 | | -| `ACTIVE` | Current reproducible headline evidence, limited to its declared evidence level | |
11 | | -| `PLANNED` | Preregistered or proposed work; not yet a result family | |
| 9 | +| `ACTIVE` | Current project-wide canonical result family, within its declared evidence level | |
| 10 | +| `LOCKED_EVALUATED` | A frozen held-out protocol has been executed and fully reported, but the evidence may remain below hardware or deployment maturity | |
| 11 | +| `ARCHIVED` | Completed, negative, null, superseded, or design-only work preserved as research memory | |
| 12 | +| `PLANNED` | Future work or an unexecuted protocol | |
12 | 13 |
|
13 | | -This directory contains only the **ACTIVE** track. Archived lessons live in [`../trial-and-error/`](../trial-and-error/), while planned experiments are documented in the roadmap and preregistration files. |
| 14 | +This directory now points to two complementary evidence lines: |
14 | 15 |
|
15 | | -## Q-GATE Liquidity Sentinel |
| 16 | +1. **Liquidity Sentinel — ACTIVE:** rare-event and tail-risk estimation under a fault-free query model. |
| 17 | +2. **Q-OPS Global C1.2 — LOCKED_EVALUATED:** selective hybrid Human–AI staffing under exact synthetic evaluation and feasible-subspace statevector simulation. |
16 | 18 |
|
17 | | -**Status:** `active` |
18 | | -**Evidence level:** `simulated-executed` |
19 | | -**Canonical result family:** selective hybrid quantum tail-risk estimation for 24/7 stablecoin reserves and tokenized collateral. |
| 19 | +--- |
20 | 20 |
|
21 | | -<p align="center"> |
22 | | - <img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sunshineluyao/Q-GATE-Challenge-2026/main/figures/liquidity_sentinel/active_track_dashboard.svg" alt="Active evidence and Atlas dashboard" width="100%"> |
23 | | -</p> |
| 21 | +# 1. Active project-wide line — Liquidity Sentinel |
24 | 22 |
|
25 | | -[Open the dashboard directly](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sunshineluyao/Q-GATE-Challenge-2026/main/figures/liquidity_sentinel/active_track_dashboard.svg) |
| 23 | +**Status:** `ACTIVE` |
| 24 | +**Evidence level:** `simulated-executed / fault-free query model` |
26 | 25 |
|
27 | | -Liquidity Sentinel remains the current active evidence line. The earlier static portfolio-QAOA and Frontier 2.0 studies are preserved as trial-and-error records, while **Q-OPS Global** is the next preregistered experiment rather than an executed result family. |
| 26 | + |
28 | 27 |
|
29 | | -## Active success summary |
| 28 | +Liquidity Sentinel studies 24/7 reserve and collateral decisions. Classical screening reduces 256 feasible policies to 16 candidates before an IQAE query model evaluates high-priority tail-risk cases. |
30 | 29 |
|
31 | | -The completed result demonstrates a reproducible hybrid workflow in which classical screening reduces the reserve-policy set before a theorem-calibrated IQAE query model evaluates the high-priority tail-risk candidates. |
| 30 | +Supported findings include: |
32 | 31 |
|
33 | | -The strongest supported findings are: |
34 | | - |
35 | | -- 4,096 exact synthetic stress scenarios and 256 feasible reserve policies; |
36 | | -- a 16-policy classical shortlist that retains the true best policy; |
| 32 | +- 4,096 exact synthetic stress scenarios; |
| 33 | +- 256 feasible reserve policies; |
| 34 | +- true-best retention by the 16-policy classical shortlist; |
37 | 35 | - 200 policy-selection replications; |
38 | 36 | - approximately square-root query-error behavior for the classical Monte Carlo families; |
39 | | -- an approximately inverse-query trend for the theorem-calibrated IQAE model; |
40 | | -- lower quantum candidate workload for the hybrid screen-plus-QAE policy than for pure QAE over all policies. |
41 | | - |
42 | | -The active result is successful because it matches the quantum method to a clearer structural bottleneck: high-precision rare-event estimation. It is not presented as a present-day hardware-speed result. |
| 37 | +- an approximately inverse-query trend for the theorem-calibrated IQAE model. |
43 | 38 |
|
44 | | -## Why this track is active |
| 39 | +The evidence does not establish current-QPU wall-clock advantage or end-to-end coherent-oracle feasibility. |
45 | 40 |
|
46 | | -Liquidity Sentinel moves the quantum component from a small combinatorial portfolio problem—where strong classical solvers were already near optimal—to a tail-risk estimation task with a clearer theoretical query-complexity separation under an explicit coherent-oracle assumption. |
| 41 | +Canonical assets: |
47 | 42 |
|
48 | | -The completed synthetic experiment reports: |
49 | | - |
50 | | -- 4,096 exact joint stress scenarios; |
51 | | -- 256 feasible reserve policies; |
52 | | -- a 16-policy classical shortlist; |
53 | | -- 200 policy-selection replications; |
54 | | -- fitted query-error slopes near `-1/2` for classical Monte Carlo families and near `-1` for the theorem-calibrated IQAE model; |
55 | | -- exact best-policy retention by the classical screening stage; |
56 | | -- a hybrid screen-plus-QAE workload smaller than evaluating all candidates quantumly. |
| 43 | +- [results report](../reports/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_RESULTS.md) |
| 44 | +- [plan](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_PLAN.md) |
| 45 | +- [assumptions and evidence boundary](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_ASSUMPTIONS.md) |
| 46 | +- [results directory](../results/liquidity_sentinel/) |
| 47 | +- [figures](../figures/liquidity_sentinel/) |
| 48 | +- [Colab](../notebooks/Q_GATE_Liquidity_Sentinel.ipynb) |
57 | 49 |
|
58 | | -## Position inside Q-GATE Atlas |
| 50 | +--- |
59 | 51 |
|
60 | | -The repository now has a clear evidence and roadmap hierarchy: |
| 52 | +# 2. Challenge locked line — Q-OPS Global C1.2 |
61 | 53 |
|
62 | | -| Layer | Track | Status | |
63 | | -|---|---|---| |
64 | | -| Allocation | Q-GATE Frontier | preserved trial-and-error evidence | |
65 | | -| Risk estimation | Liquidity Sentinel | current active evidence line | |
66 | | -| Scheduling and dynamic control | Q-OPS Global | next preregistered experiment | |
67 | | -| Solver adoption and governance | Q-GATE Meta-Router | cross-track roadmap | |
| 54 | +**Status:** `LOCKED_EVALUATED / LOCKED_SUCCESS` |
| 55 | +**Evidence level:** `exact synthetic evaluation + feasible-subspace statevector simulation` |
68 | 56 |
|
69 | | -The relationship is cumulative: |
| 57 | + |
70 | 58 |
|
71 | | -1. Frontier contributed allocation, constrained optimization, diversity and adoption-policy lessons. |
72 | | -2. Liquidity Sentinel contributed tail-risk estimation and selective query-budget evidence. |
73 | | -3. Q-OPS Global will test whether the same task descriptors, evidence gates and adoption logic transfer to digital-nomad, AI-agent and robot scheduling. |
74 | | -4. The future Meta-Router will learn across all tracks rather than treating industry labels as the prediction target. |
| 59 | +Q-OPS Global extends the staffing use case to Human-only, AI-only, and Human–AI collaboration decisions under service, capacity, review, and correlated-disruption constraints. |
75 | 60 |
|
76 | | -- Status checklist: [`../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md`](../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md) |
77 | | -- Root project blueprint: [`../README.md`](../README.md) |
78 | | -- Unified roadmap: [`../docs/ROADMAP_NEXT.md`](../docs/ROADMAP_NEXT.md) |
79 | | -- Atlas roadmap: [`../docs/Q_GATE_ATLAS_ROADMAP.md`](../docs/Q_GATE_ATLAS_ROADMAP.md) |
80 | | -- Q-OPS Global plan: [`../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_EXPERIMENT.md`](../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_EXPERIMENT.md) |
| 61 | +The held-out evaluation used 32 frozen instances from seeds 101, 211, 307, and 401. Development seeds 11 and 23 were excluded. |
81 | 62 |
|
82 | | -## Canonical active-track assets |
| 63 | +| Locked metric | Result | |
| 64 | +|---|---:| |
| 65 | +| Strict feasible-core rate | 93.75% | |
| 66 | +| ALNS win rate | 78.13% | |
| 67 | +| Classical ambiguity activation | 78.13% | |
| 68 | +| Selective quantum adoption | 28.13% | |
| 69 | +| QAOA / uniform optimum-probability ratio | 6.831× | |
| 70 | +| QAOA / uniform first-hit ratio | 0.354× | |
| 71 | +| Final hard violations | 0 | |
83 | 72 |
|
84 | | -- Results report: [`../reports/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_RESULTS.md`](../reports/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_RESULTS.md) |
85 | | -- Plan: [`../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_PLAN.md`](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_PLAN.md) |
86 | | -- Assumptions and evidence boundary: [`../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_ASSUMPTIONS.md`](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_ASSUMPTIONS.md) |
87 | | -- Literature and novelty: [`../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_LITERATURE.md`](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_LITERATURE.md) |
88 | | -- Results: [`../results/liquidity_sentinel/`](../results/liquidity_sentinel/) |
89 | | -- Figures: [`../figures/liquidity_sentinel/`](../figures/liquidity_sentinel/) |
90 | | -- Colab: [`../notebooks/Q_GATE_Liquidity_Sentinel.ipynb`](../notebooks/Q_GATE_Liquidity_Sentinel.ipynb) |
| 73 | +The supported interpretation is a **statevector-level selective hybrid advantage candidate on a frozen synthetic benchmark**. It is not a real-QPU, wall-clock, asymptotic, workplace-safety, or universal quantum-advantage claim. |
91 | 74 |
|
92 | | -## Active promotion checklist |
| 75 | +Canonical assets: |
93 | 76 |
|
94 | | -The current track remains active while stronger evidence is pursued: |
| 77 | +- [locked report](../reports/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_C1_2_LOCKED.md) |
| 78 | +- [locked protocol](../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_C1_2_LOCKED_PROTOCOL.md) |
| 79 | +- [locked status](../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_C1_2_LOCKED_STATUS.md) |
| 80 | +- [locked configuration](../configs/q_ops_global_c1_2_locked.json) |
| 81 | +- [locked summary](../results/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/locked_c12_summary.json) |
| 82 | +- [locked per-instance CSV](../results/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/locked_c12_records.csv) |
| 83 | +- [quantum visual gallery](../figures/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/) |
| 84 | +- [three-minute demo](../docs/DEMO_3_MINUTE_SCRIPT.md) |
| 85 | +- [challenge scorecard](../docs/CHALLENGE_SCORECARD.md) |
95 | 86 |
|
96 | | -- [ ] execute a frozen real-QPU or hardware-aware Sentinel; |
97 | | -- [ ] account for state-preparation and coherent-oracle construction costs; |
98 | | -- [ ] compare against additional advanced classical rare-event estimators; |
99 | | -- [ ] add noise and calibration sensitivity; |
100 | | -- [ ] evaluate a carefully governed real or institutionally realistic reserve dataset; |
101 | | -- [ ] preserve the current claim boundary until these gates pass. |
| 87 | +--- |
102 | 88 |
|
103 | | -## Claim boundary |
| 89 | +# Relationship inside Q-GATE Atlas |
104 | 90 |
|
105 | | -The current evidence supports a **fault-free query-complexity and synthetic policy-selection benchmark under an efficiently implementable coherent stress oracle**. It does not establish present-day QPU wall-clock advantage, fault-tolerant resource feasibility, or dominance over every advanced classical rare-event estimator. |
| 91 | +```text |
| 92 | +Frontier QAOA |
| 93 | +allocation lessons and negative-result memory |
| 94 | + ↓ |
| 95 | +Liquidity Sentinel |
| 96 | +rare-event estimation and query-model evidence |
| 97 | + ↓ |
| 98 | +Q-OPS Global |
| 99 | +held-out selective Human–AI scheduling evidence |
| 100 | + ↓ |
| 101 | +Noise / QPU Sentinel and Human–Robot Pilot 2 |
| 102 | + ↓ |
| 103 | +Q-GATE Meta-Router |
| 104 | +solver, budget, abstention, and Human Review policy |
| 105 | +``` |
106 | 106 |
|
107 | | -Q-OPS Global has not yet produced experimental results. Its preregistered schedules and solver policies must pass locked tests, matched classical controls, labor/compliance checks, safety verification and explicit human-review requirements. |
| 107 | +The two current evidence lines are complementary: |
108 | 108 |
|
109 | | -## Historical relationship |
| 109 | +- Liquidity Sentinel is the strongest project-wide method–problem alignment for rare-event estimation. |
| 110 | +- Q-OPS is the strongest challenge-facing locked result for selective Human–AI staffing and constrained quantum sampling. |
110 | 111 |
|
111 | | -All earlier directions remain available in [`../trial-and-error/`](../trial-and-error/). They are not deleted because negative and null results are part of the meta-learning dataset and the project's durable research memory. |
| 112 | +Neither line currently establishes present-day hardware quantum advantage. |
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