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Synchronize current evidence page with locked Q-OPS result
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# Current Active Track
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# Current Evidence Lines
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## Status control
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## Read the status labels first
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Before interpreting any result, read the canonical [Archived / Active / Planned status checklist](../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md).
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The canonical taxonomy is maintained in [`../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md`](../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md).
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| Category | Canonical interpretation |
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| Status | Meaning |
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|---|---|
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| `ARCHIVED` | Completed, negative, null, superseded or design-only work preserved for lessons and meta-learning records |
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| `ACTIVE` | Current reproducible headline evidence, limited to its declared evidence level |
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| `PLANNED` | Preregistered or proposed work; not yet a result family |
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| `ACTIVE` | Current project-wide canonical result family, within its declared evidence level |
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| `LOCKED_EVALUATED` | A frozen held-out protocol has been executed and fully reported, but the evidence may remain below hardware or deployment maturity |
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| `ARCHIVED` | Completed, negative, null, superseded, or design-only work preserved as research memory |
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| `PLANNED` | Future work or an unexecuted protocol |
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This directory contains only the **ACTIVE** track. Archived lessons live in [`../trial-and-error/`](../trial-and-error/), while planned experiments are documented in the roadmap and preregistration files.
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This directory now points to two complementary evidence lines:
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## Q-GATE Liquidity Sentinel
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1. **Liquidity Sentinel — ACTIVE:** rare-event and tail-risk estimation under a fault-free query model.
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2. **Q-OPS Global C1.2 — LOCKED_EVALUATED:** selective hybrid Human–AI staffing under exact synthetic evaluation and feasible-subspace statevector simulation.
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**Status:** `active`
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**Evidence level:** `simulated-executed`
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**Canonical result family:** selective hybrid quantum tail-risk estimation for 24/7 stablecoin reserves and tokenized collateral.
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---
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<p align="center">
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<img src="https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sunshineluyao/Q-GATE-Challenge-2026/main/figures/liquidity_sentinel/active_track_dashboard.svg" alt="Active evidence and Atlas dashboard" width="100%">
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</p>
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# 1. Active project-wide line — Liquidity Sentinel
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[Open the dashboard directly](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/sunshineluyao/Q-GATE-Challenge-2026/main/figures/liquidity_sentinel/active_track_dashboard.svg)
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**Status:** `ACTIVE`
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**Evidence level:** `simulated-executed / fault-free query model`
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Liquidity Sentinel remains the current active evidence line. The earlier static portfolio-QAOA and Frontier 2.0 studies are preserved as trial-and-error records, while **Q-OPS Global** is the next preregistered experiment rather than an executed result family.
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![Liquidity Sentinel dashboard](../figures/liquidity_sentinel/active_track_dashboard.svg)
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## Active success summary
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Liquidity Sentinel studies 24/7 reserve and collateral decisions. Classical screening reduces 256 feasible policies to 16 candidates before an IQAE query model evaluates high-priority tail-risk cases.
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The completed result demonstrates a reproducible hybrid workflow in which classical screening reduces the reserve-policy set before a theorem-calibrated IQAE query model evaluates the high-priority tail-risk candidates.
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Supported findings include:
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The strongest supported findings are:
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- 4,096 exact synthetic stress scenarios and 256 feasible reserve policies;
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- a 16-policy classical shortlist that retains the true best policy;
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- 4,096 exact synthetic stress scenarios;
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- 256 feasible reserve policies;
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- true-best retention by the 16-policy classical shortlist;
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- 200 policy-selection replications;
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- approximately square-root query-error behavior for the classical Monte Carlo families;
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- an approximately inverse-query trend for the theorem-calibrated IQAE model;
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- lower quantum candidate workload for the hybrid screen-plus-QAE policy than for pure QAE over all policies.
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The active result is successful because it matches the quantum method to a clearer structural bottleneck: high-precision rare-event estimation. It is not presented as a present-day hardware-speed result.
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- an approximately inverse-query trend for the theorem-calibrated IQAE model.
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## Why this track is active
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The evidence does not establish current-QPU wall-clock advantage or end-to-end coherent-oracle feasibility.
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Liquidity Sentinel moves the quantum component from a small combinatorial portfolio problem—where strong classical solvers were already near optimal—to a tail-risk estimation task with a clearer theoretical query-complexity separation under an explicit coherent-oracle assumption.
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Canonical assets:
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The completed synthetic experiment reports:
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- 4,096 exact joint stress scenarios;
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- 256 feasible reserve policies;
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- a 16-policy classical shortlist;
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- 200 policy-selection replications;
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- fitted query-error slopes near `-1/2` for classical Monte Carlo families and near `-1` for the theorem-calibrated IQAE model;
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- exact best-policy retention by the classical screening stage;
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- a hybrid screen-plus-QAE workload smaller than evaluating all candidates quantumly.
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- [results report](../reports/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_RESULTS.md)
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- [plan](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_PLAN.md)
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- [assumptions and evidence boundary](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_ASSUMPTIONS.md)
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- [results directory](../results/liquidity_sentinel/)
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- [figures](../figures/liquidity_sentinel/)
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- [Colab](../notebooks/Q_GATE_Liquidity_Sentinel.ipynb)
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## Position inside Q-GATE Atlas
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---
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The repository now has a clear evidence and roadmap hierarchy:
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# 2. Challenge locked line — Q-OPS Global C1.2
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| Layer | Track | Status |
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|---|---|---|
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| Allocation | Q-GATE Frontier | preserved trial-and-error evidence |
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| Risk estimation | Liquidity Sentinel | current active evidence line |
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| Scheduling and dynamic control | Q-OPS Global | next preregistered experiment |
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| Solver adoption and governance | Q-GATE Meta-Router | cross-track roadmap |
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**Status:** `LOCKED_EVALUATED / LOCKED_SUCCESS`
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**Evidence level:** `exact synthetic evaluation + feasible-subspace statevector simulation`
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The relationship is cumulative:
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![Q-OPS locked dashboard](../figures/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/locked_c12_dashboard.svg)
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1. Frontier contributed allocation, constrained optimization, diversity and adoption-policy lessons.
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2. Liquidity Sentinel contributed tail-risk estimation and selective query-budget evidence.
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3. Q-OPS Global will test whether the same task descriptors, evidence gates and adoption logic transfer to digital-nomad, AI-agent and robot scheduling.
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4. The future Meta-Router will learn across all tracks rather than treating industry labels as the prediction target.
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Q-OPS Global extends the staffing use case to Human-only, AI-only, and Human–AI collaboration decisions under service, capacity, review, and correlated-disruption constraints.
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- Status checklist: [`../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md`](../docs/STATUS_CHECKLIST.md)
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- Root project blueprint: [`../README.md`](../README.md)
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- Unified roadmap: [`../docs/ROADMAP_NEXT.md`](../docs/ROADMAP_NEXT.md)
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- Atlas roadmap: [`../docs/Q_GATE_ATLAS_ROADMAP.md`](../docs/Q_GATE_ATLAS_ROADMAP.md)
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- Q-OPS Global plan: [`../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_EXPERIMENT.md`](../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_EXPERIMENT.md)
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The held-out evaluation used 32 frozen instances from seeds 101, 211, 307, and 401. Development seeds 11 and 23 were excluded.
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## Canonical active-track assets
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| Locked metric | Result |
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|---|---:|
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| Strict feasible-core rate | 93.75% |
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| ALNS win rate | 78.13% |
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| Classical ambiguity activation | 78.13% |
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| Selective quantum adoption | 28.13% |
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| QAOA / uniform optimum-probability ratio | 6.831× |
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| QAOA / uniform first-hit ratio | 0.354× |
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| Final hard violations | 0 |
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- Results report: [`../reports/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_RESULTS.md`](../reports/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_RESULTS.md)
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- Plan: [`../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_PLAN.md`](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_PLAN.md)
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- Assumptions and evidence boundary: [`../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_ASSUMPTIONS.md`](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_ASSUMPTIONS.md)
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- Literature and novelty: [`../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_LITERATURE.md`](../docs/LIQUIDITY_SENTINEL_LITERATURE.md)
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- Results: [`../results/liquidity_sentinel/`](../results/liquidity_sentinel/)
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- Figures: [`../figures/liquidity_sentinel/`](../figures/liquidity_sentinel/)
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- Colab: [`../notebooks/Q_GATE_Liquidity_Sentinel.ipynb`](../notebooks/Q_GATE_Liquidity_Sentinel.ipynb)
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The supported interpretation is a **statevector-level selective hybrid advantage candidate on a frozen synthetic benchmark**. It is not a real-QPU, wall-clock, asymptotic, workplace-safety, or universal quantum-advantage claim.
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## Active promotion checklist
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Canonical assets:
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The current track remains active while stronger evidence is pursued:
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- [locked report](../reports/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_C1_2_LOCKED.md)
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- [locked protocol](../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_C1_2_LOCKED_PROTOCOL.md)
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- [locked status](../docs/Q_OPS_GLOBAL_C1_2_LOCKED_STATUS.md)
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- [locked configuration](../configs/q_ops_global_c1_2_locked.json)
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- [locked summary](../results/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/locked_c12_summary.json)
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- [locked per-instance CSV](../results/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/locked_c12_records.csv)
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- [quantum visual gallery](../figures/q_ops_global/c1_2_locked/)
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- [three-minute demo](../docs/DEMO_3_MINUTE_SCRIPT.md)
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- [challenge scorecard](../docs/CHALLENGE_SCORECARD.md)
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- [ ] execute a frozen real-QPU or hardware-aware Sentinel;
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- [ ] account for state-preparation and coherent-oracle construction costs;
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- [ ] compare against additional advanced classical rare-event estimators;
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- [ ] add noise and calibration sensitivity;
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- [ ] evaluate a carefully governed real or institutionally realistic reserve dataset;
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- [ ] preserve the current claim boundary until these gates pass.
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---
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## Claim boundary
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# Relationship inside Q-GATE Atlas
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The current evidence supports a **fault-free query-complexity and synthetic policy-selection benchmark under an efficiently implementable coherent stress oracle**. It does not establish present-day QPU wall-clock advantage, fault-tolerant resource feasibility, or dominance over every advanced classical rare-event estimator.
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```text
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Frontier QAOA
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allocation lessons and negative-result memory
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Liquidity Sentinel
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rare-event estimation and query-model evidence
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Q-OPS Global
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held-out selective Human–AI scheduling evidence
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Noise / QPU Sentinel and Human–Robot Pilot 2
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Q-GATE Meta-Router
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solver, budget, abstention, and Human Review policy
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```
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Q-OPS Global has not yet produced experimental results. Its preregistered schedules and solver policies must pass locked tests, matched classical controls, labor/compliance checks, safety verification and explicit human-review requirements.
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The two current evidence lines are complementary:
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## Historical relationship
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- Liquidity Sentinel is the strongest project-wide method–problem alignment for rare-event estimation.
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- Q-OPS is the strongest challenge-facing locked result for selective Human–AI staffing and constrained quantum sampling.
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All earlier directions remain available in [`../trial-and-error/`](../trial-and-error/). They are not deleted because negative and null results are part of the meta-learning dataset and the project's durable research memory.
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Neither line currently establishes present-day hardware quantum advantage.

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