|
| 1 | +{ |
| 2 | + "cells": [ |
| 3 | + { |
| 4 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 5 | + "id": "ec609f4a", |
| 6 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 7 | + "source": [ |
| 8 | + "# Quickstart: a two-level nested copula\n", |
| 9 | + "\n", |
| 10 | + "This notebook builds a **nested Archimedean copula**, evaluates its\n", |
| 11 | + "log-likelihood, and takes an exact gradient with `jax.grad` — the whole\n", |
| 12 | + "pipeline in a few cells.\n", |
| 13 | + "\n", |
| 14 | + "The model is a Frank copula over two Frank \"sectors\", each with two uniform\n", |
| 15 | + "leaves (4 dimensions total):\n", |
| 16 | + "\n", |
| 17 | + "```\n", |
| 18 | + " Frank (outer)\n", |
| 19 | + " / \\\n", |
| 20 | + " Frank Frank (sectors)\n", |
| 21 | + " / \\ / \\\n", |
| 22 | + "u00 u01 u10 u11 (uniform leaves)\n", |
| 23 | + "```" |
| 24 | + ] |
| 25 | + }, |
| 26 | + { |
| 27 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 28 | + "id": "eca84c8d", |
| 29 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 30 | + "source": [ |
| 31 | + "## 1. Define a copula family\n", |
| 32 | + "\n", |
| 33 | + "A family subclasses `Copula` via the `@copula` decorator and implements\n", |
| 34 | + "`generator` — the Archimedean generator $\\varphi$. Everything else (density,\n", |
| 35 | + "inverse, sampling) is derived automatically." |
| 36 | + ] |
| 37 | + }, |
| 38 | + { |
| 39 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 40 | + "execution_count": 1, |
| 41 | + "id": "904083af", |
| 42 | + "metadata": { |
| 43 | + "execution": { |
| 44 | + "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-24T21:36:28.908968Z", |
| 45 | + "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-24T21:36:28.908835Z", |
| 46 | + "iopub.status.idle": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.033947Z", |
| 47 | + "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.033144Z" |
| 48 | + } |
| 49 | + }, |
| 50 | + "outputs": [], |
| 51 | + "source": [ |
| 52 | + "import jax\n", |
| 53 | + "import jax.numpy as jnp\n", |
| 54 | + "from tensorflow_probability.substrates import jax as tfp\n", |
| 55 | + "\n", |
| 56 | + "from acopula import compile_model, copula, marginal\n", |
| 57 | + "\n", |
| 58 | + "\n", |
| 59 | + "@copula\n", |
| 60 | + "class Frank:\n", |
| 61 | + " theta: float\n", |
| 62 | + "\n", |
| 63 | + " def generator(self, t):\n", |
| 64 | + " return -jnp.log1p(jnp.expm1(-self.theta) * jnp.exp(-t)) / self.theta" |
| 65 | + ] |
| 66 | + }, |
| 67 | + { |
| 68 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 69 | + "id": "7079393b", |
| 70 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 71 | + "source": [ |
| 72 | + "## 2. Describe the model\n", |
| 73 | + "\n", |
| 74 | + "A model is a plain function `(params, obs) -> Node`. Calling a copula\n", |
| 75 | + "instance on its children builds the tree; `marginal` attaches a distribution\n", |
| 76 | + "(here a `Uniform`, since the data is already on the copula scale) and the\n", |
| 77 | + "observation index it reads." |
| 78 | + ] |
| 79 | + }, |
| 80 | + { |
| 81 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 82 | + "execution_count": 2, |
| 83 | + "id": "f250721b", |
| 84 | + "metadata": { |
| 85 | + "execution": { |
| 86 | + "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.035492Z", |
| 87 | + "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.035290Z", |
| 88 | + "iopub.status.idle": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.038167Z", |
| 89 | + "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.037623Z" |
| 90 | + } |
| 91 | + }, |
| 92 | + "outputs": [], |
| 93 | + "source": [ |
| 94 | + "def model(params, obs):\n", |
| 95 | + " outer = Frank(params[0])\n", |
| 96 | + " inner = Frank(params[1])\n", |
| 97 | + " return outer(\n", |
| 98 | + " inner(marginal(tfp.distributions.Uniform(0.0, 1.0), obs=obs[i, j])\n", |
| 99 | + " for j in range(2))\n", |
| 100 | + " for i in range(2)\n", |
| 101 | + " )" |
| 102 | + ] |
| 103 | + }, |
| 104 | + { |
| 105 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 106 | + "id": "faf17f24", |
| 107 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 108 | + "source": [ |
| 109 | + "## 3. Compile it\n", |
| 110 | + "\n", |
| 111 | + "`compile_model` traces the function once into a copula tree, builds a\n", |
| 112 | + "parameter flattener, and returns a jit-compiled, `grad`/`vmap`-friendly\n", |
| 113 | + "evaluator. The `template` only conveys the parameter *structure* — its values\n", |
| 114 | + "are placeholders." |
| 115 | + ] |
| 116 | + }, |
| 117 | + { |
| 118 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 119 | + "execution_count": 3, |
| 120 | + "id": "14f8ba3f", |
| 121 | + "metadata": { |
| 122 | + "execution": { |
| 123 | + "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.039277Z", |
| 124 | + "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.039160Z", |
| 125 | + "iopub.status.idle": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.120701Z", |
| 126 | + "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.120007Z" |
| 127 | + } |
| 128 | + }, |
| 129 | + "outputs": [], |
| 130 | + "source": [ |
| 131 | + "cm = compile_model(model, template=jnp.array([1.0, 1.0]))" |
| 132 | + ] |
| 133 | + }, |
| 134 | + { |
| 135 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 136 | + "id": "33c6032d", |
| 137 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 138 | + "source": [ |
| 139 | + "## 4. Evaluate the log-likelihood" |
| 140 | + ] |
| 141 | + }, |
| 142 | + { |
| 143 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 144 | + "execution_count": 4, |
| 145 | + "id": "a612d689", |
| 146 | + "metadata": { |
| 147 | + "execution": { |
| 148 | + "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.122666Z", |
| 149 | + "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-24T21:36:30.122536Z", |
| 150 | + "iopub.status.idle": "2026-05-24T21:36:31.088230Z", |
| 151 | + "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-24T21:36:31.087537Z" |
| 152 | + } |
| 153 | + }, |
| 154 | + "outputs": [ |
| 155 | + { |
| 156 | + "name": "stdout", |
| 157 | + "output_type": "stream", |
| 158 | + "text": [ |
| 159 | + "log-likelihood: -0.958893\n" |
| 160 | + ] |
| 161 | + } |
| 162 | + ], |
| 163 | + "source": [ |
| 164 | + "obs = jnp.array([[0.3, 0.7],\n", |
| 165 | + " [0.4, 0.8]])\n", |
| 166 | + "params = jnp.array([2.0, 5.0]) # theta_outer, theta_inner\n", |
| 167 | + "\n", |
| 168 | + "ll = cm.eval(obs, params)\n", |
| 169 | + "print(f\"log-likelihood: {ll:.6f}\")" |
| 170 | + ] |
| 171 | + }, |
| 172 | + { |
| 173 | + "cell_type": "markdown", |
| 174 | + "id": "61dd0233", |
| 175 | + "metadata": {}, |
| 176 | + "source": [ |
| 177 | + "## 5. Differentiate it\n", |
| 178 | + "\n", |
| 179 | + "The log-likelihood is an ordinary JAX function, so its exact gradient w.r.t.\n", |
| 180 | + "the parameters is one `jax.grad` away — this is what makes gradient-based MLE\n", |
| 181 | + "(the [next notebook](02_fit_mle.ipynb)) trivial." |
| 182 | + ] |
| 183 | + }, |
| 184 | + { |
| 185 | + "cell_type": "code", |
| 186 | + "execution_count": 5, |
| 187 | + "id": "7d7a095b", |
| 188 | + "metadata": { |
| 189 | + "execution": { |
| 190 | + "iopub.execute_input": "2026-05-24T21:36:31.091797Z", |
| 191 | + "iopub.status.busy": "2026-05-24T21:36:31.091592Z", |
| 192 | + "iopub.status.idle": "2026-05-24T21:36:33.198063Z", |
| 193 | + "shell.execute_reply": "2026-05-24T21:36:33.197304Z" |
| 194 | + } |
| 195 | + }, |
| 196 | + "outputs": [ |
| 197 | + { |
| 198 | + "name": "stdout", |
| 199 | + "output_type": "stream", |
| 200 | + "text": [ |
| 201 | + "d(ll)/d(theta_outer): 0.109353\n", |
| 202 | + "d(ll)/d(theta_inner): -0.356627\n" |
| 203 | + ] |
| 204 | + } |
| 205 | + ], |
| 206 | + "source": [ |
| 207 | + "grad = jax.grad(cm.eval, argnums=1)(obs, params)\n", |
| 208 | + "print(f\"d(ll)/d(theta_outer): {grad[0]:.6f}\")\n", |
| 209 | + "print(f\"d(ll)/d(theta_inner): {grad[1]:.6f}\")" |
| 210 | + ] |
| 211 | + } |
| 212 | + ], |
| 213 | + "metadata": { |
| 214 | + "jupytext": { |
| 215 | + "cell_metadata_filter": "-all", |
| 216 | + "main_language": "python", |
| 217 | + "notebook_metadata_filter": "-all" |
| 218 | + }, |
| 219 | + "language_info": { |
| 220 | + "codemirror_mode": { |
| 221 | + "name": "ipython", |
| 222 | + "version": 3 |
| 223 | + }, |
| 224 | + "file_extension": ".py", |
| 225 | + "mimetype": "text/x-python", |
| 226 | + "name": "python", |
| 227 | + "nbconvert_exporter": "python", |
| 228 | + "pygments_lexer": "ipython3", |
| 229 | + "version": "3.12.4" |
| 230 | + } |
| 231 | + }, |
| 232 | + "nbformat": 4, |
| 233 | + "nbformat_minor": 5 |
| 234 | +} |
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